Bitcoin's bounce a 'gift to sell' as yields hit 2007 high

Bitcoin traded at $78,968, up 1.6 percent Monday, after McGlone called the rebound a "gift to sell" as the 30-year yield hit a 2007 high.

McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, posted on X that Bitcoin has rolled over into a bear market with knock-on effects for other risk assets. "Welcome to volatility season," he wrote, adding that the current bounce "may be a gift to sell."

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.31 percent on Aug. 17, its highest since 2007, before easing to 5.23 percent by Aug. 20, with the 10-year holding at 4.69 percent, per Federal Reserve H.15 data as of 17:09 UTC. High bond yields compete directly with Bitcoin and gold by offering government-backed returns while raising borrowing costs and the discount rate applied to long-duration assets that generate no earnings. McGlone extended the warning beyond crypto, noting US market capitalization has reached roughly 2.5 times GDP and 2.1 times publicly held debt — multidecade extremes. He also flagged that the S&P 500's 260-day volatility reading is roughly half gold's, the lowest relative level since 2007, while gold's 200-day moving average turns lower.

Bitcoin tagged $79,700 for the third time since last week's 24 percent rally, with the relative strength index at 58.63 showing a bearish divergence as price makes higher highs while momentum fails to confirm. The MACD histogram is shrinking after its second peak. McGlone has suggested Bitcoin could fall toward its long-term average of around $10,000, a call defended by Real Vision's Jamie Coutts, who argued that contrarian views are essential for price discovery.

ETF flows and the macro transmission chain

Despite the bearish call, Bitcoin ETFs saw $307 million in net inflows Friday, capping a $1.92 billion week, while ETH ETFs drew $184 million Friday and $693 million for the week. Bitcoin closed its biggest weekly candle on record, up 23 percent at $78,900, with ether up 31 percent at $2,500 and solana up 26 percent at $96. The surge followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's yield-curve-control push last week, which flooded capital into the spot funds.

For traders, the key question is whether the $79,700 resistance holds. A break above would target fresh highs, while a rejection risks a retest of $76,700 and then $75,300. Rising real yields — the 30-year real yield sits at 2.95 percent — keep pressure on non-yielding assets, and McGlone's call suggests the recent surge may be a distribution opportunity rather than the start of a new leg.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.