Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin fell 50% to about $63,040 from its October 2025 peak of $126,080
- The decline is the shallowest in history versus 74% to 90% in prior cycles
- Analysts at CoinEx, DWF Labs and B2PRIME say the bottom is not yet in
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Bitcoin's 50% slide from $126,080 is history's shallowest bear market
Bitcoin's roughly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak marks the smallest drawdown in the asset's history, yet analysts warn the bottom remains ahead.
Bitcoin fell 50% to about $63,040 from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, the shallowest percentage decline in any bear cycle since the asset's inception, according to CoinGecko data as of June 10.
"Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have seen drawdowns of 74% to 90%, so a 50% correction is mild by comparison, but that doesn't mean the selling is over," a spokesperson at CoinEx said.
Prior cycles saw Bitcoin plunge 84% from its 2017 peak of $19,783 to $3,122 in December 2018, and 77% from the 2021 high of $68,789 to $15,599 in November 2022. The current drawdown, while shallower in percentage terms, has erased roughly $63,000 in nominal value per coin. Analysts at DWF Labs and B2PRIME have echoed CoinEx's view, publicly stating the bottom has not yet been reached.
The question for traders is how much further downside remains. If Bitcoin were to match the average prior-cycle decline of roughly 80%, a drop to about $25,200 would be in play — a level not seen since late 2023. The next key support sits at $60,000, with a break below that opening the door to $52,000, according to technical levels tracked across major exchanges.
Why This Cycle Is Different
The shallower drawdown reflects a structural shift in Bitcoin's holder base. Institutional inflows through spot ETFs — led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC — have absorbed selling pressure that in prior cycles would have triggered cascading liquidations. Open interest across derivatives exchanges has also contracted less violently than in 2022, suggesting leveraged positions are being unwound in an orderly fashion rather than via forced liquidations.
Yet the macro backdrop has shifted decisively against risk assets. The Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer rate stance has pushed the US Dollar Index above 99 and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.44%, draining liquidity from speculative markets. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq Composite has held above 0.6, meaning any equity selloff drags crypto lower in tandem.
What Analysts Are Watching
CoinEx's team pointed to on-chain metrics showing long-term holder spending has increased over the past two weeks, a signal that typically precedes further downside. DWF Labs noted that stablecoin supply on exchanges has contracted, reducing dry powder for dip buying. B2PRIME flagged that Bitcoin's realized price — the average cost basis of all coins — sits near $48,000, a level that has historically acted as a magnet during bear phases.
For altcoins, the pressure is more acute. Aethir (ATH), a decentralized cloud computing token, traded at $0.00498 on Gate.io as of June 16, down more than 94% from its 52-week high of $0.09270, according to Investing.com data. Ethereum fell 4.25% to $1,791.17, with its decline accelerating as Bitcoin dominance — currently above 55% — siphons capital from smaller tokens.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
