A key Bitcoin (BTC) market indicator has flashed a bullish signal for the first time since March 2023, a regime shift that historically preceded sustained rallies. The asset traded near $80,655 after the signal, with its direction likely hinging on a pivotal US inflation report.
"The probabilities slightly lean toward this being a potential local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless price follows through strongly and confirms the move,” CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who first flagged the signal, said in a note.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved out of bear territory this week after roughly 26 months. Similar signals in 2019 and early 2023 were followed by strong multi-month rallies. However, the indicator is not infallible; a brief flip into the green in March 2022 preceded a significant price rejection and further downtrend. Adding to the caution, Joao Wedson of Alphractal noted that a recent flip from net exchange outflows to inflows runs counter to typical accumulation patterns seen at cycle lows.
The immediate test for Bitcoin is the April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A softer-than-expected inflation print could reinforce the bullish case, while a high number would likely pressure risk assets by casting doubt on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders are watching for a sustained hold above the $78,000 zone, a region aligned with the True Market Mean that has historically separated bear and bull phases, while a break above $82,000 is needed for cleaner confirmation of a new uptrend.
The signal arrives as Bitcoin trades roughly 36% below its all-time high, a shallower drawdown than the 40-50% seen in previous cycles, according to data from Tiger Research. Some analysts believe this reflects structural market changes, including demand from US-based spot ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation. Ryan Yoon, a senior analyst at Tiger Research, said this has created a "price floor" not present in past cycles. Still, others remain unconvinced the old playbook is gone. Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, noted that with nearly 70% of short-term holder supply now in profit, the incentive to sell is growing.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
