Bitcoin would trade at $22,000 without Saylor, analyst warns as crash deepens

Bitcoin fell to $62,204 on June 4, its lowest since February, as selling from long-term holders and corporate treasuries deepened a selloff that has erased 21% of value over four weeks.

"Without Michael Saylor's relentless accumulation, Bitcoin would be trading near $22,000 today," a research analyst at a crypto analytics firm said. "The current crash is a direct consequence of OG whales and Saylor himself finally taking profits."

Strategy sold 32 bitcoin for roughly $2.5 million on June 1 — its first sale since 2022 — to fund preferred-stock dividends. The company holds 843,706 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,702, leaving its treasury about $10 billion underwater, per its latest filing. Glassnode data shows wallets holding at least 1,000 bitcoin reduced positions by 4.2% since May 14, the same period in which U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $4 billion in cumulative outflows.

The selloff pushed Bitcoin below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023, a level that historically marked a buying opportunity. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick reiterated a year-end target of $100,000, calling the current level "the buying zone we all wanted." But with the S&P 500 up 10% year-to-date while Bitcoin fell 27%, the rotation out of crypto into AI and IPO trades shows no sign of reversing.

Capital Rotation, Not Bitcoin Impairment

Charles Schwab director of digital currencies research and strategy Jim Ferraioli argued the selloff reflects a rotation of momentum capital rather than any fundamental weakness. "Crypto investors historically just go wherever the momentum is," he said. "And momentum is out of crypto at the moment."

The AI boom has created new speculative opportunities. Public companies tied to AI infrastructure have generated strong returns, while anticipated IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX — the latter targeting a valuation as high as $1.8 trillion — have drawn investor attention. Ferraioli noted that even crypto-native traders are using decentralized exchange Hyperliquid to speculate on pre-IPO shares. "I think people that are excited about momentum are getting excited about IPOs," he said.

Saylor's $10 Billion Unrealized Loss

Michael Saylor acknowledged the rotation thesis, saying capital markets are funding the AI buildout at "historic scale" and that ETF outflows represent "a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment." He estimated roughly $400 billion has flowed into AI infrastructure over six months.

Yet pressure on Strategy's balance sheet is mounting. With Bitcoin near $62,000, the company's holdings are worth about $52.5 billion against a cost basis near $63.9 billion — an unrealized loss exceeding $10 billion. The 32-bitcoin sale, while financially immaterial, marked the first disposal since 2022 and dealt a psychological blow to a market that viewed Strategy as a permanent buyer.

Standard Chartered's Kendrick expects Strategy to buy back aggressively, as it did in 2022. "When we look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100,000, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted," he wrote.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.