Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin whales flipped from selling to buying after offloading $40 billion since October 2025, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.
The reversal coincides with softer U.S. jobs data that cooled expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, Butterfill said, helping Bitcoin climb back from its 2026 lows.
The $40 billion offloading marked a sustained distribution phase among large holders through the first half of 2026. The flip to accumulation signals a change in positioning among the largest Bitcoin wallets, a shift that historically precedes renewed upside in the token.
The macro backdrop is the key driver. Softer labor-market readings have pushed fed funds futures to price out further tightening, easing pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's recovery from 2026 lows tracks this repricing, with the token drawing support as rate-hike bets fade.
The cooling in rate expectations also supports the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, both of which influence crypto demand. A weaker dollar typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while lower yields diminish the appeal of cash and bonds relative to risk assets. For institutional allocators weighing Bitcoin against fixed income, the shift in the rate outlook tilts the comparison in favor of the token.
The shift from whale selling to buying represents a significant bullish signal for Bitcoin. Combined with cooling rate-hike expectations, it could drive sustained upward momentum as the token recovers from 2026 lows, potentially attracting additional institutional and retail inflows. The macro tailwind could also lift the broader crypto market, where whale flows often set the tone for altcoin performance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
