Bitcoin whales bet against August's 4-year losing streak as ETF flows cool

Bitcoin faces its weakest seasonal month as whale accumulation clashes with cooling ETF demand and long-term holder caution.

Bitcoin is ending July up 11.5% at $65,300, its third consecutive green July, as August — the worst month by historical returns — approaches.

Data from Glassnode shows the number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC rose from 1,263 to roughly 1,267 between July 23 and July 26, a pattern that preceded a 4% gain in late June. The same whale cohort turned buyers on June 23 and held through mid-July as Bitcoin climbed nearly 4% over that stretch.

Weekly spot Bitcoin ETF inflows peaked at $197.4 million in the week to July 10, then slid 83% to $33.79 million by July 24, according to CoinShares data. Long-term holders added coins at a sharply slower pace — the net position change dropped 47% from 29,838 BTC on July 11 to 15,766 BTC on July 26.

August has delivered a median return of negative 7.87%, the weakest of any month, and has closed red every year since 2022. The divergence between whale accumulation and the retreat by both ETF flows and long-term holders sets up a test of whether the historical pattern holds or breaks.

Whale Accumulation vs. Holder Caution

The largest Bitcoin wallets are positioning for a rebound. The number of whale entities — wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC — climbed to roughly 1,267 by July 26, up from 1,263 three days earlier. That same signal appeared on June 23, when whale entities began accumulating and Bitcoin gained nearly 4% through mid-July.

Long-term holders tell a different story. The net position change metric, which tracks how much supply long-term wallets add or shed each month, peaked at 42,301 BTC on May 24 when Bitcoin traded near $77,039. It then fell roughly 52% to about 20,500 BTC by July 2 as the price slid to $61,486. The metric dropped another 47% from 29,838 BTC on July 11 to 15,766 BTC on July 26, even as Bitcoin held near $65,000.

ETF Demand Cools Into August

Institutional demand is fading into the historically weak month. Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows fell from $197.4 million in the week to July 10 to $75.67 million the following week, then to $33.79 million by July 24 — an 83% decline from the July peak. Fund desks are not selling, but the pace of new inflows has slowed sharply.

July's 11.5% gain matters because Bitcoin had defied seasonal norms for most of the year. June fell 20.5% against a positive historical average, and that weak close shaped expectations for July. August now arrives with the worst seasonal record on the board — a median return of negative 7.87% and an average of negative 0.64%, one of only two negative monthly averages.

If whales are correct and August breaks the four-year losing streak, a breakout above resistance near $68,000 could trigger further upside. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could test support near $60,000, a level that held during the June selloff.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.