Bitcoin trades near $60,000 as 30% YTD decline deepens bear market fears

Bitcoin oscillated between $58,500 and $60,500 on Friday, snapping a two-day, $4,500 slide as traders weighed whether the 30% year-to-date decline marks a cycle bottom or further downside.

"Bitcoin's 13-week and 33-week moving average bearish cross has historically opened the cycle-bottom window in every major BTC cycle," analysts at ERGAG Crypto said, citing the 2-week chart pattern that preceded the 2014, 2018, and 2022 lows.

Over $1.09 billion in crypto positions were liquidated across centralized exchanges in the past 24 hours, with 151,343 traders wiped out, according to Coinglass data. Long positions absorbed $846.83 million of the total losses. Bitcoin touched $58,000 — its lowest since September 2024 — before recovering above $60,000 on short-covering rather than genuine buying demand, whale order book data showed. Sell walls remain stacked between $60,170 and $61,200, with bid clusters at $57,300 to $58,500 acting as short-term support.

The macro downside structure targets Fibonacci extension levels at $47,000, $43,000, and $37,000, with the deepest historical target matching the 2014 and 2022 cycle bottoms. A 2-week close above $74,000 would invalidate the bearish pattern, but with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rising to 4.1% in May — a three-year high — and spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to bleed capital, the risk-off narrative dominates.

$1.09 Billion in Liquidations Reshape Positioning

The liquidation cascade was lopsided toward long-side traders, who accounted for $846.83 million of the $1.09 billion total, Coinglass data showed. The single largest position wiped was a $38.05 million BTC-USD trade on Hyperliquid. Bitcoin's open interest declined 3.34% to $45.44 billion, while trading volume rose 9.48% to $109.24 billion, suggesting the move was driven by forced unwinding rather than fresh short positioning.

Deribit options data for the June 27 expiry showed a put/call ratio of 1.64, with max pain pinned at $61,000. The heaviest put concentration clustered between $55,000 and $58,000, with the $58,000 strike carrying particularly large open interest.

ETF Outflows and Strategy Risk Add Pressure

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to lose funds as institutional investors reduced exposure to riskier assets. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF saw $239.30 million in net outflows and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund shed $120.80 million on Thursday, according to data from the issuers. Around $86.10 million followed out of the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF.

Adding to the pressure, Strategy — the corporate Bitcoin holder with more than 500,000 BTC on its balance sheet — fell another 8% in recent sessions, with its preferred shares dropping 7%. Peter Schiff publicly described the situation as a "death spiral" that could burst the Bitcoin bubble, though forced liquidation remains speculative. A confirmed break below $57,000 on the 2-week timeframe raises the probability of a deeper move toward the $43,000 to $47,000 range, analysts said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.