Bitcoin surges past $79,000 as institutional buying meets cycle warnings

Bitcoin pushed past the $79,000 mark on Wednesday, appreciating 4.5% in 24 hours to its highest level since early February, fueled by persistent institutional demand. The digital asset traded as high as $79,400, according to CoinGecko data as of April 23, 2026, as the broader S&P 500 also reached new records.

"First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50)," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said, noting a similar reading in March 2022 preceded a sharp price decline. "In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline."

The move comes as institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including BlackRock's IBIT, continue to absorb supply, with billions in net inflows recorded in April. The price is holding above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with technical charts showing strong support near $75,000 and a key resistance barrier between $78,000 and $80,000.

A sustained break above $80,000 could open a path toward the $84,000 level, but the rally faces headwinds from cycle theorists. Some analysts are calling for a bear market bottom in late 2026, pointing to historical four-year patterns that suggest the cycle top is already in.

The bull case rests on continued demand from institutional and corporate buyers. One recent corporate purchase totaled around $2.5 billion, tightening the available supply. Bulls argue this cycle is different due to the scale of capital from entities like Michael Saylor's Strategy, which is on pace to acquire significantly more Bitcoin than in previous cycles and is not expected to sell.

However, veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Group, argues the 2025 cycle top is already behind us. He forecasts a bottom around the 200-week moving average, currently near $57,000, arriving in October 2026. "We have been following the four-year cycle unbelievably well," Terpin said on the On The Margin podcast. This view is echoed by derivatives data, where positioning continues to point to range-bound conditions rather than a sustained breakout, according to Singapore-based QCP Capital.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.