Key Takeaways:
- BTC fell 0.69% to $64,384 after US jobless claims came in below forecasts
- Initial claims hit 199,000, below the 204,000 expected by economists
- BTC needs a daily close above $64,800–$65,000 to confirm renewed momentum
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Bitcoin slips below $65,000 as US jobless claims beat forecasts
Bitcoin fell 0.69% to $64,384 on Thursday after US jobless claims came in below forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated.
The US Department of Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial claims of 199,000 for the week ending Aug. 1, below the 204,000 consensus. The four-week moving average dropped 4,500 to 198,750, according to the department's data.
BTC had recovered from approximately $62,400 earlier in the week and briefly tested the $64,800–$65,000 resistance zone before sellers regained control. The rejection pushed the token toward $64,000, its nearest short-term support. The dollar index rose 0.26% on Thursday, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5.3 basis points to 4.666%, according to Barchart data.
A resilient labor market gives the Fed room to maintain restrictive policy, which lifts Treasury yields and strengthens the dollar — both headwinds for non-yielding assets. Markets are pricing a 58 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting on Sept. 15-16. BTC must reclaim $64,800–$65,000 to confirm renewed momentum; a sustained break below $64,000 could expose the recent swing low near $62,400.
Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.801 million for the week ending July 25, while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2 percent. The increase suggests some unemployed workers are taking longer to find new positions, even as layoffs remain limited.
The Financial Times reported Thursday that Fed Chair Warsh is willing to raise rates at the September FOMC meeting if inflation firms and market expectations shift toward tightening. That report added to the dollar's strength and weighed on risk assets.
US Q2 nonfarm productivity rose 1.4 percent, stronger than the 0.6 percent expected, while unit labor costs rose 1.3 percent, below the 2.1 percent forecast, according to Barchart data. These figures point to a labor market that remains resilient even as the Fed maintains restrictive policy.
Weekly unemployment claims represent only one part of the Fed's policy outlook. Officials will also consider inflation, payroll growth, wages and consumer spending before making their next decision. Bitcoin's decline following the claims release reflects shifting rate expectations rather than a confirmed change in Federal Reserve policy.
Upcoming US inflation and employment releases will determine whether BTC can break above $65,000. Softer economic data could revive expectations for rate cuts, while continued labor market strength may keep Bitcoin's recovery capped below $65,000.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
