Bitcoin recovers to $64,400 as weak jobs data fuels rate-cut bets

Bitcoin rose 10% to $64,400 as of July 9 after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report revived bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

"Right now Bitcoin is trading like a pure rates asset," Eric Swartz, founding general partner at Panther Hollow Ventures, said. "The rally from the high-$58Ks to almost $64K is basically the market pulling forward Fed-easing expectations after a soft jobs report."

The US added 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half the consensus estimate, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The miss intensified speculation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will pursue more aggressive rate cuts, with fed funds futures pricing in a higher probability of easing at the next meeting. Sifling, wealth manager at Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, said the rally started after Warsh suggested AI productivity gains might help cool inflation, which traders interpreted as a signal that rate cuts are coming.

Despite the bounce, Bitcoin remains well below Glassnode's True Market Mean of about $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of roughly $72,200 — both levels that must be reclaimed for a sustainable uptrend. Long-term holders are still realizing about $280 million in daily losses, a metric that historically needs to stabilize before a true market bottom forms.

Long-term holder losses signal persistent selling pressure

Glassnode data shows that long-term holders — wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — have been realizing aggregate losses of $280 million per day. That pace of realized losses from the most resilient cohort typically precedes either a capitulation event or an extended consolidation period. The last time long-term holder losses reached this magnitude was during the mid-2024 correction, which preceded a two-month consolidation before Bitcoin resumed its uptrend.

The persistent selling suggests that even investors with the highest conviction are reducing exposure at current levels, a dynamic that historically delays the formation of a durable price floor.

Macro tailwinds face technical headwinds

The July rally has been driven almost entirely by shifting macro expectations rather than organic on-chain demand. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume has remained below the seven-day average, according to CoinGecko data, indicating that the move lacks broad participation. Open interest across major derivatives exchanges has risen modestly, but funding rates remain neutral, suggesting leveraged traders have not yet committed to a directional bet.

Sifling noted that seller exhaustion also played a role in the bounce. "When Bitcoin slipped below $58,000 on July 1, over a billion dollars in leveraged bets got wiped out," he said. "Prices snapped back, shorts got squeezed, and suddenly the chart looked very different."

Bitcoin's next major resistance sits at $72,200 — the short-term holder cost basis — followed by the True Market Mean at $76,600. On the downside, support at $58,000 has held twice in the past month, but a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the $52,000 area, according to technical analysts.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.