Bitcoin reclaims $77,000 as cost-basis data signals phase shift

Bitcoin climbed 23.8% over five sessions to $77,886 as of 18:24 UTC, reclaiming the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $67,000-$69,000 for the first time since May.

Analysts at CryptoQuant said the break above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, a band where recent buyers had sat underwater since May, marks a shift from capitulation into a volatile transition phase.

The Long-Term Holder Realized Price held near $49,200 through the correction, with no structural distribution during the pullback to June's low around $59,700. Price now sits near the True Market Mean of $76,500 and just under the Active Realized Price near $83,800, a zone that has capped or launched every major trend shift this cycle.

Liquidity clusters near $78,000-$80,000 could determine the next move, with the daily RSI above 85 suggesting a stretched setup. A clean break above $80,000 that holds may open a path toward $90,000, while a rejection could send Bitcoin back toward $70,000.

Cost-Basis Bands Point to Greed, Not Euphoria

On short-term bands, spot has moved from below the base STH-Realized Price into the plus-0.5 standard deviation zone near $83,000. Analysts describe this position as greed rather than euphoria, with the plus-1 standard deviation band near $98,000 still untested by current price action.

Sharp reclaims following prolonged compression rarely resolve in a straight line. The initial leg of such moves is typically driven by leverage unwind, with short covering playing a larger role than patient spot accumulation early on. This dynamic produces outsized volatility and fast profit-taking from short-term buyers.

Crypto analyst Crypto Haris flagged liquidity clusters shaping Bitcoin's short-term direction, pointing to a pocket near $78,000-$80,000 with a second cluster below around $73,000-$75,000. He suggested Bitcoin may test the upper liquidity zone before any deeper pullback, with a hard rejection near $80,000 potentially sending the asset back toward $70,000.

Corporate Holders Return to Profit

The rally has also lifted corporate holders back into profit. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, holds 840,447 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,385 per coin, putting its position roughly 2.4% above cost basis with an unrealized gain of about $1.4 billion. That reverses a stretch when Bitcoin's drop to $58,000 in July left the firm with an unrealized loss near $13 billion, or 20.4% of its total cost basis.

Strategy's common stock jumped 10% in Friday pre-market trading to $120, its highest level in two months. The firm has also repurchased roughly $347 million of its perpetual preferred stock, STRC, over the past four weeks, more than a third of its $1 billion buyback authorization. STRC trades at $95.62, up about 35% from its June low of $71, nearing its $100 par value target.

A durable shift still needs the STH-Realized Price reclaim to hold as support on retest, and the one-year Holder Realized Price near $104,800 would need to return into range. Both conditions remain open questions, though the higher-probability read favors continuation, not without further volatility.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.