Bitcoin rebounds above $63K as $60K support holds during macro uncertainty

Bitcoin defended $60,000 for the first time since 2024, triggering a short-covering rally above $63,000 as traders eye CPI data and a potential SpaceX IPO.

Bitcoin traded near $62,700 as of 14:00 UTC on June 8 after briefly slipping below $60,000 on June 6, its first break of that threshold in more than two years. The rebound followed a 14.6% weekly decline that wiped nearly $19,000 from the price and pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to a multi-year low of 8, according to CoinGecko data.

"The $60,000 level has more than $1.2 billion in notional open interest tied to put options at that strike on Deribit," Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk. A break below that level could force market makers to adjust hedges, with short gamma exposure potentially leading to additional spot or futures selling, he said.

The recovery was fueled by short covering and oversold signals after Bitcoin's daily RSI dropped to roughly 15.5, its lowest reading since the March 2020 COVID-era crash. CoinGlass data showed more than $155 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within an hour during the selloff, with total liquidations exceeding $1.7 billion over a 24-hour period. The RSI has since recovered to around 25.8, though the MACD remains bearish with the histogram only beginning to contract.

The $60,000 defense is the most critical technical development for Bitcoin's near-term outlook. A sustained hold above that area opens a path toward the 9-day simple moving average near $65,300 and the 20-day EMA near $69,000. However, failure to maintain support above $60,000 could trigger another liquidation wave, with the next major support zones at $58,500 and $56,000, according to TradingView data.

On-chain data shows capitulation, but not a confirmed bottom

Short-term holders are realizing losses at the largest level on record, with the short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio hitting a new all-time low, according to data cited by analyst Scott Melker. Approximately 5.3 million Bitcoin held by long-term holders are now sitting at a loss, exceeding levels seen after the FTX collapse.

CryptoQuant data showed total demand contraction near 501,000 BTC, with spot demand falling to -272,000 BTC on a 30-day cumulative basis and futures demand dropping to -229,000 BTC. Nearly $40 billion left the Bitcoin ecosystem over a short period as capital rotated into US equities, particularly large AI-related companies, the data provider reported.

Not all analysts agree a bottom has been established. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost noted that realized losses since October have reached roughly $174 billion, still below the $211 billion recorded during the 2022 bear market, leaving room for additional downside if capitulation continues. Market commentator Ardi said retail investors have continued buying dips while larger participants distribute supply during relief rallies, a pattern not typically associated with major market bottoms.

Macro headwinds and the SpaceX IPO factor

The selloff intensified after the US Labor Department reported 172,000 nonfarm payroll additions for May, far above the 85,000 consensus estimate. Revised figures added another 93,000 jobs to the prior two months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer. BNP Paribas abandoned its previous forecast for stable rates and now projects three Fed rate hikes beginning in December, citing persistent inflation and strong labor market conditions.

Adding to the uncertainty, rumors of a potential SpaceX IPO could draw liquidity away from risk assets including Bitcoin, though the direction of capital flows remains unclear. The upcoming CPI release and Fed rate decision will be the next major catalysts for Bitcoin's price trajectory.

If Bitcoin can hold above $60,000 through these events, the path to $65,300 and $69,000 becomes viable. A decisive break below $60,000, however, would expose the $58,500 and $56,000 support levels, with the 200-week SMA near $55,000 representing the next major long-term support zone.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.