Key Takeaways:
(P1) Bitcoin’s recent 11.5% surge to over $80,000 may be on shaky ground as social media discussion turns excessively bullish, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment. The firm noted on May 10 that the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has hit 1.5-to-1, a level that often precedes price pullbacks.
(P2) “Rallies that arrive with a confident crowd tend to fade faster than those climbing a 'wall of worry,'” Santiment said in a report. The firm’s ideal scenario for a sustainable rally involves a “pullback to $75k that flushes late longs, resets sentiment, and builds a healthier base.”
(P3) The warning comes as Bitcoin trades at $80,704 after an 11.5% gain over the past 30 days. Contrasting the social media froth, whale wallets have been accumulating, adding 10,000 BTC worth approximately $750 million this month alone, according to separate data. This follows the addition of over 50,000 BTC last month. Furthermore, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $1.7 billion.
(P4) The conflicting signals create a critical make-or-break moment for Bitcoin. While analysts like Michael van de Poppe see a potential retest of $70,000 to $75,000, others are watching key technical levels. A failure to break and hold above the 50-week exponential moving average, currently at $85,700, could see the price resume its downtrend toward an initial target of $58,000.
A deeper look at on-chain activity reveals a divided market. Santiment flagged a concerning trend for bulls, noting that the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has ticked up over the past five days after a long period of decline. This reversal could indicate early profit-taking from holders who bought at lower prices.
This contrasts sharply with accumulation from large holders. Data shows wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC were the most aggressive buyers, adding 20,000 tokens in just eight days. This smart money accumulation, paired with rising ETF inflows and a 49% jump in Bitcoin futures open interest to $64 billion, suggests institutional players are positioning for further price increases.
The cautious sentiment is reflected in the broader crypto market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at a "Neutral" score of 47. Altcoins like Solana (SOL) have started to show signs of life but continue to lag Bitcoin's performance. SOL is up nearly 5% to test resistance at $90, but has only gained 6.5% year-to-date compared to Bitcoin's 17% rise.
On-chain data for the Solana network shows that transaction volumes and fees remain heavily depressed from their peaks, indicating that speculative interest in areas like meme coins and DeFi has not fully returned. This performance gap suggests investors are maintaining a cautious risk profile, prioritizing Bitcoin over more volatile assets until a clearer market direction is established.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
