Key Takeaways
Bitcoin has trended upward for a record 90 consecutive days, a rally that more closely resembles the start of a new bull market than a temporary bear market rebound, according to new analysis. The move comes after the price briefly fell below $60,000 in late February before rallying to a local high near $83,000.
"This BTC rally resembles a bull market rally NOT a bear market rally," trader and analyst Matthew Hyland said in a post on X on May 22. "There has NEVER been a rally that trended upward for 89 days ever in a bear market in BTC history."
The uptrend began after BTC/USD hit its lowest levels since late 2024, with the subsequent three-month climb clearing what Hyland identifies as key high time frame resistance above $77,000. However, other analysts urge caution. Research from CryptoQuant notes the current price structure mirrors the March 2022 rally that preceded a sharp downturn. That move also stalled at the 200-day moving average, a level that has historically defined bear market rallies.
The key level for a definitive bull market confirmation is now near $88,000, according to independent analyst Filbfilb, who points to the weekly supertrend indicator. A decisive break above this level could signal the end of the bear market, while failure could see Bitcoin retest lower supports, potentially near the $70,000 on-chain realized price.
While Hyland’s analysis points to a historically unique and bullish price structure, on-chain data and the macroeconomic backdrop present a more complicated picture. Long-term holder (LTH) supply is approaching all-time highs at 16.3 million BTC, with this cohort accumulating during recent price weakness, a typical bear market bottoming signal. Top traders at exchanges like Binance and OKX have also recently increased their net long positions, suggesting confidence in the $76,000 support level.
However, this confidence is being tested. Data from CryptoQuant highlights a worrying parallel to the 2022 bear market structure, where a similar relief rally was sharply rejected. Adding to the concern, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of $2.07 billion since May 12, and the Coinbase Premium has remained negative, suggesting waning institutional demand from the US.
The broader economic environment is also flashing warning signs. Weaker guidance from retail giant Walmart and persistently high oil prices have increased fears of a more restrictive US Federal Reserve policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 37% chance of an interest rate hike by September, a complete reversal from a month ago.
These factors are creating a tense standoff. While the 90-day uptrend provides a strong bullish narrative, headwinds from institutional outflows and macroeconomic pressures remain significant. Analyst The Scalping Pro outlines two paths: a bounce toward mid-range resistance before another drop, or a more direct breakdown to establish a new cycle low. For now, the market remains balanced, with the Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate holding at neutral levels.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
