Bitcoin's sharpest rally in five months has flipped short-term prediction market odds to a coin flip, yet longer-dated contracts remain stubbornly bearish.
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Bitcoin rallies 8.7% to $71,556 as prediction markets resist breakout
Bitcoin climbed 3.26% to $71,556 on Thursday, extending Wednesday's 8.7% surge — the strongest two-day move since March — and reclaiming levels last seen June 1.
"The rally may be sustainable if spot demand growth continues after the initial impact of these macro events," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said. "Officially we are still in a bear market, so a price pullback is possible."
The move liquidated more than $3 billion in crypto short positions, the largest wipeout of bearish bets on Bitcoin since at least 2021, while spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $517 million Wednesday — their biggest single-day inflow since May. On Myriad, the "pump to $84K or dump to $55K" market swung from roughly 70% odds of a dump days ago to a near coin flip: 52% bullish, 48% bearish.
The next line in the sand sits at $70,284, the lower edge of a resistance band on daily charts. A daily close above that level opens room toward $73,245; losing $68,000 drags Bitcoin back inside the compression wedge that preceded crashes in October 2025 and January 2026.
Prediction markets diverge on near-term vs year-end odds
The skepticism is not uniform across platforms. Polymarket's flagship 2026 price market priced a 56% chance Bitcoin touches $55,000 before year-end and just 51% odds of a run to $75,000 as of last week. On Kalshi, traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000 — both thresholds the rally blew through Wednesday. A separate Polymarket contract put Bitcoin above $75,000 for August at 47% on roughly $12 million in volume.
The odds grid shows confidence degrading sharply as targets rise: 93% for $72,500, 59% for $75,000, 31% for $77,500, before collapsing to 15% for $80,000 and 1% for the $100,000 mark. Myriad's contract carries no calendar expiration — it resolves the moment Binance's BTC/USDT spot price touches either $84,000 or $55,000.
Short squeeze fuel is spent, analysts say
The rally was driven by the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the government could purchase Bitcoin, according to analysts. Adam McCarthy, a researcher at crypto trading firm Lo:Tech, said more than half of Wednesday's gain occurred within a single hour as traders were forced out of a one-sided short position. "That fuel is spent, so the next leg has to be bought rather than squeezed," he said.
Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, said Bitcoin's reclaim of its 200-day simple moving average near $69,000 has improved the technical picture, with the recent high around $72,824 as immediate resistance. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said $80,000 remains the key boundary, but he expects Bitcoin to trade range-bound rather than enter a sustained breakout, noting that digital asset investment products attracted about $1.3 billion this week.
The gap between spot market momentum and conservative prediction contracts reflects a market where forced liquidations, not fresh accumulation, drove the move. Whether buyers can convert $70,284 into support will determine if this rally becomes a trend or fades into another false signal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
