A geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a massive withdrawal of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges, with 82,197 BTC flowing out in the 57 days since the conflict began on February 28. The exodus reverses a previous trend of accumulation on platforms like Binance, OKX, and Coinbase.
"The Hormuz conflict triggered a brutal outflow of 82,197 BTC across all three exchanges within just 57 days," on-chain analyst GugaOnChain noted in a recent market analysis. The analyst described the pre-conflict period as “pure distribution” dominated by retail depositors.
Data shows that from January 2 to February 27, the three exchanges saw a combined net inflow of 27,741 BTC. Once the conflict started, the trend reversed sharply. Binance led the outflows, losing 45,450 BTC, while OKX and Coinbase registered net withdrawals of 28,506 BTC and 8,242 BTC, respectively. The shift on Coinbase from net accumulation to outflows points to a change in behavior among U.S. institutional investors.
The conflict, which has pushed crude oil prices over $100 a barrel, underscores the growing correlation between geopolitical events and cryptocurrency markets. The flight of Bitcoin from exchanges, currently trading near $77,500, suggests investors are moving assets into self-custody as a safe-haven play amid global instability. This large-scale removal from the available supply could create upward pressure on prices if demand remains strong.
The conflict's impact extends beyond exchange flows, squeezing Bitcoin miners already grappling with post-Halving economics. Rising energy costs, driven by the oil price shock, have pushed the average cost to mine one Bitcoin in the U.S. to between $85,000 and $90,000, according to data from CheckOnchain. With production costs exceeding the asset's market price, many U.S. miners are operating at a loss.
In contrast, Iran, a key player in the conflict, was previously a haven for miners due to heavily subsidized electricity, with production costs as low as $1,300 per Bitcoin in 2025. However, the war appears to be impacting its operations, with an April report from Hashrate Index showing a 7 EH/s drop in the country's hashrate quarter-over-quarter.
"The hash rate will always protect the most efficient miners," Chris Brendler, Senior Research Analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, told TheStreet Roundtable. He noted that as less efficient miners are forced offline, the network’s difficulty adjusts, allowing the most efficient operators to remain profitable.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
