Bitcoin holds at $63,700 as long-term holders tighten supply grip

VanEck's July ChainCheck report shows Bitcoin's supply base tightening even as derivatives flash caution and miner economics hit multi-year lows.

Bitcoin traded flat at $63,700 through mid-July, sitting 14 percent below its 200-day moving average as a tightening supply base clashed with cautious derivatives positioning.

"Bitcoin's consolidation reflects a tug-of-war between weak near-term flows and a structurally tightening supply base," Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said in the firm's July ChainCheck report.

The report, authored by Sigel and Patrick Bush, showed long-term holders — wallets holding coins for more than a year — now control 60.8 percent of supply, up from 59.1 percent six months earlier. VanEck projects that share reaches about 62 percent in three months and nears 63 percent in six. Against that, US spot exchange-traded products shed 40,010 BTC, worth about $2.40 billion, while miner economics deteriorated to multi-year lows with daily revenue averaging $28.5 million, down 39.5 percent year over year.

The divergence between tightening supply and weak demand creates conditions for a breakout, though the firm said near-term downside pressure persists until derivatives show true capitulation — a skew past 15 percentage points or funding that flips negative. Until one of those markers appears, VanEck sees below-average forward returns across the 30-to-180-day window.

Derivatives flash fear, not panic

The one-month put/call implied volatility skew widened to 11.4 percentage points, an 83rd-percentile reading since 2021, as traders paid a premium for downside protection. Total options premium fell 23 percent to $613.6 million, and the put/call premium ratio climbed to 1.49 against an average near 0.71. Perpetual-futures funding sat near 4.5 percent on a 30-day average, about half the long-run 8.4 percent, a sign that positioning remains far from bullish after a spring stretch in which shorts were paid to hold.

VanEck maps both signals to below-average forward returns. It flags two markers of a true bottom that have not arrived: a skew past 15 points or funding that flips negative.

Miner economics near multi-year lows

Network hash rate held near record highs around 930 EH/s as price fell, pushing implied hashprice to about $30.6 per petahash per second per day — near multi-year lows. Daily miner revenue averaged $28.5 million, down 39.5 percent year over year, a level that puts lower-efficiency rigs at or below breakeven. Miner-held bitcoin stayed near 1.785 million, a sign of steady sales of new coins over capitulation.

Publicly traded miners are pivoting toward artificial-intelligence hosting. VanEck highlighted TeraWulf's 20-year, $19 billion lease with Anthropic and CleanSpark's $6.6 billion deal as top unlevered yields. Miner equities have dropped about 42 percent from 52-week highs on higher rates, a New York pause on data-center construction, and doubt over AI returns.

For patient holders, the structural picture stays constructive. A supply base where long-term holders control more than 60 percent of coins and rising has historically lined up with above-average returns across horizons in VanEck's tests. The question is whether near-term headwinds from cautious derivatives and weak miner cash flow resolve before that tightening supply forces a price adjustment.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.