Bitcoin holds $64,000 as Hormuz reopening hopes lift risk appetite

Bitcoin rose 1 percent to $64,176 as Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes sent oil prices tumbling and revived risk appetite across global markets.

Bitcoin rose 1 percent to $64,176 on Bitstamp as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal sent oil prices tumbling and revived risk appetite across global markets.

"A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen today or tomorrow," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview. President Donald Trump said the day before that talks were under way and reopening could come "as soon as tomorrow."

WTI crude fell 4.8 percent and Brent dropped 4.6 percent to their lowest levels since July 13, easing inflation concerns and supporting equities. The S&P 500 climbed to 7,713, a record, while total US stock market capitalization topped $70 trillion for the first time. CME FedWatch data shows a 56.7 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

Bitcoin's advance stalled near $64,388, the 21-day simple moving average, while the 50-day moving average provided support on short-term charts. CryptoQuant data shows strong accumulation, with roughly 155,000 BTC — about 0.7 percent of total supply — held by investors with average purchase prices between $62,000 and $65,000. A break above $64,388 could unlock additional upside; failure risks extended range-bound trading.

On-chain accumulation persists despite capped upside

The gap between Bitcoin's muted reaction and the equity rally reflects divergent positioning. Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Boul noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has offered limited signals on the policy path, leaving economic data, oil prices, and bond market moves to shape expectations.

CryptoQuant assessed that even in bearish stretches, buying absorbed supply more strongly than large-scale selling. As investors accumulated Bitcoin during the price adjustment, the demand base at current levels is being maintained.

What to watch

Market focus centers on two variables: whether Hormuz reopening discussions produce an actual deal, and how lower oil prices reshape Fed rate expectations. Bitcoin is seeing buying in the $62,000-$65,000 range, but failure to break above $64,388 could extend range-bound trading. A move above that level would secure additional upward momentum.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.