Bitcoin holds $60,000 support as buy signal keeps rally path open

Bitcoin's bounce from $60,000 has kept a historically reliable weekly buy signal active, but the path higher depends on reclaiming $67,000 as resistance turns to support.

Bitcoin rose 4 percent to $65,775 after bouncing from the $60,000 support zone, keeping a historical weekly buy signal active as on-chain accumulation strengthened.

"Accumulation increased across multiple investor cohorts as Bitcoin approached $60,000, suggesting buyers viewed the dip as a discount entry," CryptoQuant data showed. The Accumulation Trend Score, which measures the relative size of wallets adding to holdings, strengthened near the June low.

The recovery followed a US-Iran ceasefire agreement last week that boosted risk appetite across markets. Bitcoin briefly touched $67,200 on Tuesday before settling above $66,000, according to CoinGecko data as of 14:30 UTC. The move triggered $365 million in short liquidations out of $488 million in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours, per Coinglass. Yet spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain mixed — after snapping a 13-day outflow streak with an $86 million inflow on Friday, the category posted $64.09 million in net outflows on Monday, SoSoValue data showed. ETFs have shed roughly $2 billion in June.

The $67,000 level represents a volatility pivot given concentrated options positioning, where negative gamma exposure could amplify price swings in either direction. A sustained move above that threshold would open a path toward the 50-day exponential moving average near $70,345, while a loss of $60,000 would expose $55,000 as the next downside target.

$60,000 Floor Faces Institutional Skepticism

Despite the bounce, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day EMA at $70,532, its 100-day EMA at $73,222, and its 200-day EMA near $77,521 — a structure that signals a prevailing downside bias. The Relative Strength Index sits near 44, still below the neutral 50 midline, suggesting buyers are recovering ground inside a corrective structure rather than leading a fresh uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has flipped positive, consistent with a corrective rebound.

The Fear and Greed Index at 23 out of 100, up from 12 a week ago, remains firmly in extreme fear territory. Derivatives data reinforces the caution: the annualized premium on two-month futures stood at just 2 percent as of June 16, below the 4 percent threshold considered neutral, indicating limited demand for leveraged bullish positions.

Macro Crosscurrents and the Regulatory Wildcard

The Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1 percent — the highest since 1995 — adds a layer of macro uncertainty. While Bitcoin held its ground on the day of the hike, analysts at Charles Schwab expect any yen carry-trade unwinding to occur gradually, which could stress leveraged positions over time. Historically, BOJ tightening has preceded Bitcoin declines averaging 20 percent to 30 percent.

On the regulatory front, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, representing a potential catalyst for institutional inflows. Prediction markets estimate a 62 percent probability of enactment in 2026, with a final breakthrough expected by late summer or year-end.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.