Bitcoin holder losses near $600 billion as 44% of supply sits in the red

Approximately 44 percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss totaling nearly $600 billion, as the asset trades 47 percent below its all-time high, according to data from Glassnode as of April 8.

“Historically, resolving a supply overhang of this scale has required a meaningful redistribution of coins from loss-realizing holders to new buyers at lower prices,” Glassnode analysts said in their latest weekly report, comparing the structure to the Q2 2022 market bottom.

The data shows roughly 8.8 million BTC are underwater, with long-term holders actively selling at a loss to the tune of $200 million per day. Further pressure comes from institutional holders, with the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors now standing at $83,408, well above the current price of around $66,450.

The mounting paper losses are testing investor conviction against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop of tightening global liquidity, driven by rising Japanese bond yields and a strong US dollar. Analysts are watching for a cooldown in holder capitulation as a potential signal that a price floor is forming.

A Market Divided

The sharp increase in loss-making supply has analysts divided on whether Bitcoin is entering a historic buying opportunity or facing a deeper capitulation event. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, on-chain conditions are approaching undervaluation levels comparable to past bear markets, suggesting a bottom may be near.

However, the persistent negative reading on CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index indicates that demand from US investors remains in a deep contraction. “The sustained demand contraction, now persisting since late November 2025, confirms that the broader market remains in distribution,” CryptoQuant’s weekly report stated.

Adding to the bearish perspective, Andri Fauzan Adziima of Bitrue described the current market as an “early-to-mid bear transition,” placing a potential structural bottom near $55,000 while warning that further downside remains likely. This view is supported by the depth of the current drawdown, which at 52 percent from the all-time high, is less severe than the 77 to 84 percent declines seen in previous cycles.

Macro Headwinds Intensify

External macroeconomic pressures are compounding the stress on Bitcoin holders. Analysis from XWIN Research highlights how rising Japanese government bond yields, which recently hit a multi-decade high of 2.39 percent, are draining global liquidity as Japanese institutions repatriate capital. As the world’s largest foreign creditor, Japan’s market movements have an outsized impact on risk assets like Bitcoin, which historically thrive in easy-money environments.

This is exacerbated by a strengthening US dollar, which analyst Timothy Peterson noted often reflects tighter global liquidity and limits Bitcoin’s upside. Peterson suggested that a reversal of these conditions is unlikely before late 2026 or 2027, pointing to a potentially prolonged period of pressure for the digital asset.

For now, the market remains in a precarious state. While some contrarian investors may see the widespread unrealized losses as a signal to accumulate, the combination of active selling from long-term holders and a restrictive global liquidity environment suggests the path of least resistance may still be lower. Glassnode suggests a key signal of seller exhaustion would be when long-term holder realized losses cool to below $25 million per day.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.