Bitcoin faces 60% odds of $60,000 retest as bottom signals emerge

Bitcoin closed May at $73,568, down 3.4%, as open interest gaps and on-chain profit data suggested the market has not reached prior cycle bottom conditions.

"The data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a greater than 50% probability that we go lower," PlanB, the pseudonymous on-chain analyst, said in a post on X on June 1. He pointed to the 200-week moving average near $61,000 and the realized price near $53,000 as potential landing zones.

Prediction markets reinforce the bearish outlook. Kalshi Crypto assigns a 60% implied probability that Bitcoin hits $60,000 before $100,000, and only a 34% chance of reclaiming six figures before January 2027 — a sharp reversal from the start of the year, when the market priced a 94% probability of trading above $100,000 by mid-2026. On the derivatives side, total open interest remains 24,000 BTC below pre-October levels after roughly 71,000 BTC worth about $11 billion was wiped out in a violent shakeout last year, according to Coinglass data.

Not all signals point lower. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, said the current pattern of institutional and insider selling aligns with historical market bottom formations, arguing that the turbulence represents standard cyclical behavior rather than genuine cause for alarm. The question for traders is whether the February low near $60,000 holds as the final bottom or serves as a waypoint to deeper losses.

Descending Channel Points to $51,000 if Support Breaks

Technically, Bitcoin remains locked in a descending channel that has controlled price action for eight months. Every major rebound has failed near the upper diagonal — first at $97,855, then at $83,156 in May — while each selloff has found a reaction near the lower boundary. The rejection from $83,156 has pushed Bitcoin back into the lower half of the channel, where analyst NoName projects the structure could terminate near $51,291.

A daily close below $70,000 could trigger a fresh wave of selling, trader Ted Pillow said, noting that the level has absorbed repeated pressure in recent weeks. Below that, the 200-week moving average at $61,000 and the realized price at $53,000 represent the next major support zones, according to PlanB.

Contrarian Views See a Bottom Already In

Crypto analyst Blade argues that Bitcoin may have already bottomed at the February low of $60,000, pointing to a Megaphone Bottom pattern on the monthly chart. He said the structure suggests Bitcoin could target $160,000 in the next leg higher, with a longer-term rally to $400,000 possible by 2030.

Colin, another analyst, warned that a Head-and-Shoulders top pattern is currently retesting its neckline, and a rejection from that level would confirm a breakdown targeting the mid-$60,000 range. He said Bitcoin is being forced to make a decision within a day or two.

The divergence between bullish and bearish readings leaves the market in a familiar position: waiting for a catalyst — whether a macro shock, an ETF flow reversal, or an on-chain capitulation event — to resolve the direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.