Bitcoin eyes $63K as CPI relief lifts Fed pause odds to 60%

US CPI matching expectations lifted September Fed pause odds to 60 percent, yet Bitcoin failed to rally — leaving the $63,000 support level as the key test.

Bitcoin stalled after US CPI matched forecasts, with traders warning $63,000 support may fail as September Fed pause odds rose to 60 percent.

The muted reaction follows a consumer price index print in line with consensus, which pushed fed funds futures to price a 60 percent chance the Federal Reserve holds rates in September, according to CME Group data. Analyst TedCcrypto said the current uptrend is likely to continue as long as Bitcoin holds above $63,000.

Bitcoin traded near $63,960 at 11:00 UTC, down 1.9 percent over 24 hours, per CryptoRank. The asset remains roughly 16 percent above the July low near $58,000 after breaking above a 10-month downtrend line, a pattern MaxCrypto and others read as a precursor to a sustained uptrend.

A break below $63,000 would open the door to a retest of the $58,000 low, while a hold could set up a bounce as macro uncertainty resolves. Glassnode cautioned that a full uptrend is not yet confirmed, leaving the market split between bulls targeting $400,000 and bears watching for a deeper correction.

CPI relief fails to lift Bitcoin

The August 12 CPI release matched market expectations, yet Bitcoin's price action did not reflect the relief. Instead of extending gains, the asset drifted lower, with traders flagging the $63,000 level as a potential failure point. The divergence between macro relief and crypto weakness suggests the market is more focused on the risk of a break below key support than on easing inflation pressure. A softer inflation path would normally support risk assets, but the muted response points to a market already pricing in the outcome.

Analysts split on the bottom

Ali Martinez, a widely cited technical analyst, said Bitcoin's recent price action may have marked a local bottom, while Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, expressed cautious optimism that market structure is improving. On the other end, pseudonymous analyst Rekt Fencer projected Bitcoin could eventually rise to $400,000, reflecting optimism that the current cycle still has room to run.

For investors, the $63,000 level is the immediate decision point. A sustained hold would support the bottoming thesis and could lift risk appetite across altcoins, while a break below would likely trigger a broader selloff. Resistance sits near $65,000, a level Bitcoin reclaimed earlier this week before fading. As always, the volatile nature of the market means no single level or forecast should be treated as definitive.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.