Bitcoin ETF inflows resume as $2.3B stablecoin drain exposes $57K

Bitcoin attracted $273 million in spot ETF inflows over the past two weeks, breaking an eight-week outflow streak that saw more than $8 billion exit the funds.

"The return of inflows suggests selling pressure is easing, but the current pace of buying remains too limited to confirm a broader uptrend," Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said.

The two-week total of $273 million is barely larger than the smallest single-week outflow during the prior slump, which registered $226.84 million in the week ended June 18, according to SoSoValue data. Exchange stablecoin reserves have simultaneously fallen by $2.3 billion, reducing the dry-powder available for spot buying and creating a liquidity contraction that offsets the ETF-driven demand.

The conflicting signals leave Bitcoin's recovery vulnerable. A decisive break above the $65,000-to-$65,500 range is needed to confirm a new uptrend, Massabni said. Below $64,000, the next major support sits at $57,000 — a level that has not been tested since the sell-off accelerated in May.

ETF Flows vs. Liquidity Drain

The eight-week outflow period that ended in mid-June saw investors pull more than $8 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with cumulative net inflows still standing at $50.85 billion as of Monday, per SoSoValue. Citigroup revised its 12-month ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero on July 1 and lowered its Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, reflecting concerns over the strength of institutional demand.

The $2.3 billion decline in exchange stablecoin reserves compounds the demand-side weakness. Stablecoins are the primary vehicle for converting fiat into crypto on exchanges, and a shrinking reserve means less immediate buying capacity — even as ETF flows turn positive.

Macro Headwinds Build

Rising oil prices and disruptions to energy corridors are adding macro pressure. Bitcoin has stabilized near $64,000 after falling from highs above $126,000 in October, but the 30% decline from the start of the year leaves it in a technical bear market. CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom noted that nearly $10 billion in outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs since Oct. 11, 2025, suggests weak institutional demand, though the number of new Bitcoin whales has continued to grow.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas compared Bitcoin ETFs' trajectory with gold ETFs, noting that both products experienced rapid adoption followed by extended periods of weaker performance. In a post on X on Friday, Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs may follow a pattern of "spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries," with each cycle potentially setting higher highs over time.

For now, the data points in opposite directions. ETF inflows have returned, but at a scale that barely registers against the prior exodus. Stablecoin liquidity is draining. Oil is rising. Until one of these forces breaks decisively, Bitcoin's recovery remains a fragile one.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.