Bitcoin drops to $72,500 as $9B options expiry tilts odds to bears

Bitcoin bears hold a decisive advantage heading into Friday's $9 billion monthly options expiry, with the largest crypto asset trading at a six-week low.

Bitcoin fell 3.8 percent to $72,500, a six-week low, ahead of a $9 billion options expiry that favors bears. The selloff triggered $342 million in leveraged long liquidations across centralized exchanges, according to Coinglass data as of 14:00 UTC.

"If the market begins to consolidate below $74,000, bears will look for a retest of the February lows just above $60,000," Sean Bill, chief investment officer and co-founder of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, said.

The May 29 expiry on Deribit, which holds about 70 percent of the monthly options market, carries $3.4 billion in call open interest and $2.91 billion in puts. If Bitcoin stays below $74,000 heading into Friday's 8:00 am UTC settlement, only $306 million of calls will be in the money versus $1.05 billion of puts, giving bearish strategies a more than 3-to-1 advantage, exchange data shows. The weakness coincides with $733 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on Wednesday, the largest single-day exit since Jan. 29, bringing the two-day total to $1.07 billion, per SoSoValue. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone saw $527.8 million in outflows, its second-largest since inception.

A sustained break below $74,000 could open the door to a retest of the February lows near $60,000, while a recovery above the 200-day moving average at $80,000 would be needed to restore bullish momentum. The options settlement at 8:00 am UTC on Friday is the next major catalyst, with the June 26 expiry showing only an 18 percent implied probability of Bitcoin trading above $80,000, according to Deribit pricing.

Strategy's cash crunch compounds market stress

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 843,738 tokens acquired over six years, faces mounting financial pressure. The company's STRC perpetual preferred equity instrument carries $10.4 billion in notional value with an 11.5 percent dividend, translating to about $1.7 billion in annual obligations. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10xResearch, said Strategy's effective cash runway to cover those dividends has collapsed to 6.1 months, down from the 16 months he previously forecast.

Founder Michael Saylor recently acknowledged the company will "probably sell some bitcoin soon," a symbolic shift for a firm that built its brand on relentless accumulation. "When that symbol starts selling instead of buying, the story changes," Thielen said, adding that the path back to $100,000 this year looks harder than the market assumed even a few weeks ago.

The selling pressure extends beyond Strategy. Paris-based Sequans Communications announced plans to fully liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, while publicly traded mining firms and Trump Media and Technology Group have also scaled back exposure. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, a key gauge of US institutional demand, fell to -160 on Wednesday, its lowest since early February when Bitcoin bottomed near $60,000. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also came under pressure, dropping below $2,000 for the first time in two months as its ETFs recorded 12 consecutive days of outflows totaling more than $471 million.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.