Bitcoin drops $10,000 in 3 weeks after 200-DMA rejection sparks selloff

Bitcoin's rejection at its 200-day moving average has erased $10,000 in three weeks, reviving comparisons to the bear market structures of 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin fell 12% to $72,474 over three weeks after rejecting at its 200-day moving average near $83,000, reviving comparisons to bear market patterns from 2018 and 2022. The decline accelerated through late May, with the token briefly breaching the $73,000 support level on May 28 to hit a six-week low.

"Bitcoin rallied into the 200-DMA before rolling over again, mirroring the same structure we saw in 2018 and 2022," Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, said on May 29. The pattern echoes previous cycles where Bitcoin staged a relief rally into the widely watched technical indicator before resuming its downtrend.

The selloff coincided with the largest monthly outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026. Net redemptions reached $2.30 billion in May, reversing two consecutive months of inflows that totaled $3.29 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Cumulative net inflows have slipped to $55.79 billion from $58.09 billion in April. The scale of the exit stands out: Bitcoin fell only 3.69% in May, yet the outflow was roughly 10 times larger than February's $206 million net redemption, when BTC dropped 14.8%.

The $73,000 level briefly broke on May 28, with BTC touching $72,474 before recovering. If that support fails, the next major floor sits near $65,000 to $68,000, historically significant zones where previous accumulation clusters formed. On the three-day chart, Bitcoin has been trading inside a rising channel since February, a pattern that typically resolves to the downside unless the upper trendline is broken cleanly. The 100-period exponential moving average is closing in on the 200-period EMA on the same timeframe, and a crossover would mark a longer-term bearish shift.

Whale Accumulation Offers a Counter-Narrative

Despite the selloff, large holders have continued buying. Whales accumulated more than 30,000 Bitcoin in May, valued at roughly $2.2 billion, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. Combined with April's purchases, whales have poured over $6 billion into BTC over the past two months, suggesting strong conviction at current levels.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also been steadily increasing, signaling that traders are gradually returning to the market. The weekly Relative Strength Index triggered a buy signal after rising above its 14-week moving average, a pattern that has preceded rallies in three prior instances, according to historical data.

The tension between institutional ETF selling and whale accumulation sets up the central question for June. Bitcoin's median return for June is positive at 2.58%, with only five negative months in the past 12 years. Whether seasonal buyers or distribution sellers control the next month will depend on whether the $73,000 support holds and whether the 200-DMA can be reclaimed.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.