Bitcoin down 46% from peak as Cantor says bear market entering final stretch

Cantor Fitzgerald told clients the bitcoin bear market is approaching its final phase, with a cycle bottom expected in the coming months.

Bitcoin traded near $60,250 on Wednesday after Cantor Fitzgerald said the bear market is entering its final stretch, with a cycle bottom expected in the coming months.

The bank's research desk told clients the bitcoin cycle points to a market bottom in the coming months, according to a note published Wednesday. Cantor urged investors to focus on networks with durable value accrual rather than speculative tokens.

Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its all-time high, briefly breaking below $60,000 last week and touching its 200-week moving average. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the aggregate realized price — the average cost basis of all bitcoin holders — sits at around $53,300, less than 10% below current levels. Every prior bear market has seen bitcoin trade below this level before establishing a durable bottom.

If Cantor's call proves correct, the next few months could mark the end of a downturn that has erased more than $800 billion from the crypto market's peak valuation. The key question is whether the bottom forms in the $54,000-to-$58,000 range several analysts have flagged, or if a deeper capitulation event is still needed.

The Cantor note adds to a growing list of institutional calls for a cycle bottom. Wintermute described the market last week as a "late-stage bear" with capitulation underway, though it cautioned that a confirmed bottom has not yet formed.

On-chain signals are also flashing familiar patterns. The ratio of bitcoin UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss has fallen to its lowest level this cycle, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, a metric that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms. "These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors," Darkfost said.

The selloff has been compounded by macro headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations have weighed on risk assets, with spot bitcoin ETFs seeing $4 billion in outflows in June — their worst month on record, according to CoinDesk data.

PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow bitcoin price model, has said there is a greater than 50% probability that bitcoin falls below its realized price of $53,300 before the cycle finds a floor. Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus said the market is nearing a point where "it's so bearish it's bullish" from a risk-reward perspective, expecting a bottom in the $54,000-to-$58,000 range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.