Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed pressure, with prices trending toward $70,000 after the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s latest inflation nowcast for April showed a higher-than-expected reading of 3.56 percent, dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts.
"Key level to hold is the 78.6K weekly open, if lost, 74–75K is the next downside target," analyst Killa said in a Sunday post on X, formerly Twitter. "I would watch for liquidity sweeps around this pivot to signal the next move."
The Cleveland Fed’s projection sees year-over-year headline inflation accelerating from 3.3 percent in March, a development that gives the central bank less room to lower borrowing costs. For risk assets like Bitcoin, a hawkish Fed stance typically applies downward pressure. The technical picture for Bitcoin has also turned bearish, with the daily chart showing a classic rising wedge pattern. This formation, which is currently converging near the $84,000 level, has a measured downside target of approximately $70,000 if the lower trend line is breached.
The potential for a price drop is magnified by weakening institutional support that had previously absorbed inflationary shocks. Strategy, a major corporate buyer of Bitcoin, has paused its purchases as its STRC preferred stock trades below its $100 par value, limiting its ability to raise capital for more BTC buys. This contrasts with previous months where institutional buyers absorbed more than 500 percent of newly mined supply, providing a strong price floor. Without this aggressive buying, Bitcoin appears more vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds ahead of the official CPI report on May 12.
While the immediate outlook appears cautious, some veteran traders maintain a long-term bullish framework. Peter Brandt, who has a track record of calling major market turns, has suggested Bitcoin could still reach a cycle peak between $300,000 and $500,000 by late 2029, provided its four-year halving cycle continues to hold. However, his model includes a potential bottoming process in late 2026, which could see prices drop further before a sustained rally begins. For now, the market is focused on the $70,000 support level as a crucial test of the digital asset's resilience against a challenging macro backdrop.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
