Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin climbed 2.2% to $78,100 in the hours following President Donald Trump’s announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran, a move that eased immediate geopolitical tensions and lifted risk assets.
"Bitcoin is now holding above the realized price of short-term holders at around $69,400," a report from CryptoQuant noted, a level at which recent buyers are in profit, historically reducing liquidation risk.
The rally was supported by news of Strategy's largest bitcoin purchase since 2024, acquiring 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion. This coincided with $1.4 billion in weekly inflows to global crypto funds, with bitcoin products attracting $1.12 billion, according to CoinShares data.
With the immediate geopolitical risk repriced, traders are now watching if bitcoin can break through resistance between the True Market Mean of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,200 to challenge the $80,000 mark.
The cryptocurrency market saw broad gains after Trump’s post on Truth Social confirmed the ceasefire would be extended, which he said was in response to a request by Pakistani mediators. The news sent U.S. stock futures higher, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.6%. Brent crude, which had been elevated due to the conflict's impact on the Strait of Hormuz, hovered near $98 a barrel.
However, the extension was met with skepticism from Tehran. An advisor to Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, called the move a "ploy to buy time" for a surprise strike, according to a Reuters report. This sentiment underscores the fragile nature of the current market calm.
Adding to the bullish momentum was a significant institutional purchase from Strategy. The firm's latest acquisition of 34,164 bitcoins at an average price of $74,395 brings its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. With an average cost basis of $75,527, the firm's massive position is now slightly profitable for the first time in months, a symbolic milestone for market watchers.
From a technical perspective, holding the $69,400 level is a constructive signal. This price represents the average acquisition cost for short-term holders, and staying above it can prevent a cascade of selling from recent buyers. The next major hurdle is a clean break above $80,000, which could trigger a short squeeze, given the compressed funding rates over the past 46 days.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
