Bitcoin at $65K as BlackRock director flags US fiscal path for next rally

BlackRock's Robert Mitchnick pointed to US fiscal conditions as the decisive factor that could trigger Bitcoin's next sustained move higher.

Bitcoin has lacked momentum in recent months, but BlackRock's Robert Mitchnick identified US fiscal conditions as the key driver for the next rally.

"US fiscal conditions are the most important factor that could drive the next Bitcoin price rally," Mitchnick, managing director at BlackRock, said in an interview.

Bitcoin traded near $65,829 as of June 17, the most recent available data, down roughly 23% year to date, according to CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency has struggled to sustain momentum even as spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows in mid-June, with US-listed funds recording $85.8 million in inflows on June 16 after 13 consecutive days of outflows totaling $4.4 billion.

Mitchnick's comments come as markets digest the debut of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, whose June 17 policy decision held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. The intersection of US fiscal trajectory and monetary policy will determine whether institutional capital rotates back into Bitcoin, with the next key resistance level at $70,000 and support at $60,000.

The $9 Trillion Sideline Question

BlackRock's focus on fiscal conditions echoes comments from Rick Rieder, the firm's global fixed income chief investment officer, who told Bloomberg that up to $9 trillion in money market funds is "sitting on the sidelines" awaiting deployment. Rieder pointed to the SpaceX IPO and the US-Iran peace deal as events that could unlock that capital.

"Once that has happened, all of a sudden it unlocks this cash," Rieder said. "And it's pretty explosive when you see it happen."

The fiscal backdrop has shifted in recent weeks. Oil prices fell to around $80 per barrel after the US and Iran signed a preliminary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing a major geopolitical risk factor. Lower energy prices could ease headline inflation, giving the Fed more room to maintain its current rate stance.

Institutional Signals Point Both Ways

On-chain data shows large Bitcoin holders withdrew over 11,000 BTC from exchanges in the days before the June 17 FOMC meeting, a move that suggests reduced near-term selling intent, according to Arkham Intelligence. Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin treasury led by Michael Saylor, resumed buying after a brief pause, acquiring 3,137 BTC across two purchases in early June.

But the recovery remains fragile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.10 billion in outflows in June through mid-month, and Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has been declining since 2022, partly due to systematic call selling by institutional investors.

BlackRock's own BITA fund, which began trading June 17, sells call options on 25% to 35% of its portfolio to generate monthly income, potentially adding further downward pressure on Bitcoin's implied volatility.

For Bitcoin to break above $70,000 and sustain a rally, the market needs a clear signal from the fiscal side — either a shift in US debt trajectory or an event that forces capital rotation out of money markets. Mitchnick's framing suggests BlackRock sees the next leg higher as a macro-driven event, not a crypto-native one.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.