Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin active addresses fell to 545,233 on Aug. 9, the lowest since 2018, as network usage cooled more than ten months into a bear market, CryptoQuant data analyzed by Finbold show.
"Hedge funds on CME have flipped net long on bitcoin futures, a rare shift after years of structural short positioning driven by the basis trade," Ki Young Ju, chief executive of CryptoQuant, said. "You cannot run a traditional carry trade with an aggregate net-long futures position. The suits are now betting on bitcoin's upside."
The 30-day simple moving average of active addresses slipped to about 643,507 on Aug. 9 from roughly 721,755 on Oct. 6, a 10.84% decline of 78,248 unique accounts. Bitcoin traded at $64,960 at press time, down more than 25% year-to-date, with 24-hour volume of $15.4 billion, up over 23% on the day.
The 30-day SMA has since climbed to its highest level since May 29, 2026, and Bitcoin holds above its June 30 low of $58,535 — a setup that, if sustained, could echo the post-2018/2019 recovery that preceded a rally to new all-time highs.
Network Activity vs. Price
The divergence between raw address counts and the moving average is what analysts are watching. While the daily reading hit a multi-year low on Aug. 9, the 30-day average has risen off its lows, a pattern that historically has preceded price bottoms rather than followed them. In the 2018 cycle, the 30-day activity average bottomed 166 days before the price low of $3,206 on Dec. 14, 2018, while the 100-day average troughed 44 days after it.
In the current cycle, the 30-day and 100-day averages reached their lows 19 and 27 days after Bitcoin's June 30 bottom of $58,535, and both have since moved higher — closing Aug. 8 at 664,764 and 640,603, respectively. Whale balances have also risen to roughly 3.06 million BTC from 2.87 million in December 2025, per CryptoQuant, while K33 found more than half of circulating supply in unrealized loss, a threshold that preceded cycle lows by 13 to 31 days in 2017, 2018 and 2022.
Institutional Flows Add to the Mix
The address recovery has coincided with fresh institutional buying. H100 Group purchased 2,455.37 BTC at an average price of $62,900, worth about $154.44 million, taking its holdings to 3,506.4 BTC, or roughly $228.4 million, per Lookonchain. The annualized three-month futures basis has also fallen to about 3%, below the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes, making the once-popular carry trade less attractive as Bitcoin rebounded from around $58,000 toward $65,000.
None of the six research firms reviewed — CryptoQuant, K33, Glassnode, Bitfinex, Grayscale and 10x Research — has confirmed a durable bottom, and 10x Research warned that miner selling and softer corporate treasury demand could add fresh supply pressure. For traders, the overlapping signals suggest the market may be in a bottoming process rather than a confirmed reversal, with the 30-day activity average needing to hold above 609,688 and Bitcoin above $58,535 for the constructive view to remain valid.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
