AST SpaceMobile drops 7.8% as space stocks slide on geopolitical jitters

AST SpaceMobile fell 7.8% to $67.58, leading space stocks lower as Middle East tensions drove oil 9% higher and pushed investors from speculative names.

"China's Long March 10B booster recovery is a genuine milestone that challenges the assumption that reusable rocketry is a uniquely American capability," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note, maintaining their outperform rating on SpaceX with a $239 price target.

The selloff swept across the sector. SpaceX dropped 5% to $138.58, sliding below its $150 IPO price for the first time and extending a decline from its $225 June peak. Rocket Lab lost 4% to $78.10, Intuitive Machines fell 3%, and the Procure Space ETF declined 2% to $46. The broader market also weakened, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.6% and the S&P 500 declining 0.8%, while the energy sector gained 3.5% as the top-performing group. The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to near 4.62%, and the U.S. dollar index climbed 0.3% to 101.28.

The pullback comes at a critical juncture for space companies that remain unprofitable and cash-intensive. AST SpaceMobile, which has nearly 60 mobile network operator partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026. Any delay in that deployment schedule or further deterioration in risk appetite could extend the drawdown.

Geopolitical Catalyst Reshapes the Trade

President Donald Trump said Monday the U.S. was reinstating a blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a brief ceasefire and sending West Texas Intermediate crude up 9% to near $78 a barrel. Brent crude rose a similar percentage to $83. For space stocks, the oil spike triggered a sector rotation into energy names and out of high-beta, pre-profit companies that rely on sustained risk appetite to fund capital-intensive satellite programs.

AST SpaceMobile's decline was the sharpest among its peers despite company-specific progress. The company received a New Zealand gateway license effective Monday and has BlueBird 11 at Cape Canaveral ahead of an August launch. Its Q1 revenue of $14.7 million missed the $36.6 million consensus, weighed down by an $88.7 million induced conversion expense, though management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. Cash stood at $3 billion.

China's Rocket Milestone Adds Pressure

Bernstein's note on China's Long March 10B landing added a structural concern to the day's macro-driven selling. The July 10 milestone marked China's first orbital-class booster recovery using a sea-based net-and-hook platform, narrowing what had been viewed as a wide technology gap between U.S. and Chinese launch capabilities. While Bernstein argued SpaceX still leads by a wide margin with about 165 launches last year and nearly a decade of Falcon 9 reuse, the development introduces a new variable for investors pricing space sector leadership.

Rocket Lab's 4% decline came despite positive company news. The company completed the U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE responsive-space demonstration, launching within 16 hours 42 minutes of notice — a record. Bank of America maintained a buy rating with a $115 price target. The stock has still shed 24% over the past month as the sector de-rated.

What to Watch

Investors will track Tuesday's June Consumer Price Index report, which economists expect to show a 3.8% annual increase, down from 4.2% in May. A softer inflation reading could ease some of the pressure on speculative growth names, while a hot number would reinforce the risk-off rotation that punished space stocks Monday. For AST SpaceMobile specifically, the August BlueBird 11 launch and the conversion of MNO memoranda into definitive contracts will determine whether the current pullback represents a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.