Key Takeaways:
- 24/7 Wall St. rates Archer a BUY with a $11.51 target, implying 127% upside
- Archer completed FAA Phase 3, the first eVTOL company to do so
- Q1 net loss widened to $217.7 million on just $1.6 million of revenue
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Archer Aviation gets $11.51 price target as FAA certification nears
24/7 Wall St. set a $11.51 price target on Archer Aviation, implying 127% upside as the eVTOL maker nears FAA certification.
"Archer has completed Phase 3 of the FAA's four-phase Type Certification process — the first eVTOL company to do so — and the agency has accepted 100% of 797 Means of Compliance," the 24/7 Wall St. analyst team said in a June 16 note.
Archer trades at $5.08, down 32% year to date and 56% over the trailing year. The stock hit a 52-week high of $14.62 before retreating. H.C. Wainwright carries a $18 buy target, while Goldman Sachs downgraded to Hold on dilution risk. ARK Invest holds 4.94% of shares and BlackRock 6.9%.
The certification milestone unlocks commercial air taxi operations, with Archer designated as the official provider for the LA28 Olympic Games. The company holds $951.1 million in cash after burning $188.8 million in Q1, giving it runway through initial operations expected in late 2026.
The bull case for Archer rests on becoming the first US eVTOL operator. Beyond the LA28 contract, the company has secured partnerships with Korean Air for up to 100 aircraft, Japan Airlines, and Saudi Arabia's PIF. A defense program with Anduril, powered by NVIDIA's IGX Thor and Palantir's SMART AI platform, adds a second revenue stream beyond air taxis.
The bear case centers on cash burn. Archer posted a net loss of $217.7 million in Q1 2026 against $1.6 million of revenue, with R&D spending reaching $171.7 million. An $8 million vendor stock issuance in May highlighted dilution risk. The bear scenario projects a $9.35 target, still above the current price but well below the base case.
The 24/7 Wall St. model projects Archer trading at $17.50 by 2027, $26 by 2028, and $48.30 by 2030, assuming certification holds and commercial revenue scales. A June 26 shareholder vote on Texas reincorporation is the next governance milestone.
The price target signals that FAA certification is the dominant driver for Archer's valuation. Investors will watch for Phase 4 compliance testing results and the start of commercial US operations, which management has guided for the second half of 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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