Key Takeaways:
The market for artificial intelligence companies is reaching a fever pitch, with Anthropic’s implied valuation soaring to $1 trillion on secondary markets ahead of a wave of initial public offerings that could reshape U.S. equity markets.
"Once we move past that excitement stage where everybody wants to own it, it's going to be really critical for these companies to show exactly what their profits are," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.
The surge in private trading values Anthropic at more than two and a half times the $380 billion valuation it achieved in a February funding round. It comes as OpenAI reportedly seeks a $1 trillion valuation for its own IPO and Elon Musk’s SpaceX targets up to $1.75 trillion. The trio are tapping into intense investor demand for AI, yet all are currently unprofitable; SpaceX posted a nearly $5 billion loss last year on $18.6 billion of revenue, according to its registration statement.
At stake is whether investors will assign Magnificent Seven-style valuations to companies without their track record of sustained earnings. The listings present a major test for markets and pose a structural challenge for the companies themselves, which must achieve four consecutive quarters of profit to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500 and the trillions in passive investment it commands.
The frenzy surrounding Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI executives Dario and Daniela Amodei, has seen it overtake its larger rival in private markets. Secondary share platforms that value Anthropic around $1 trillion are pricing OpenAI at approximately $880 billion, according to data from Forge Global and Caplight. One growth fund reportedly offered to buy Anthropic shares at a $1.05 trillion implied valuation.
Driving the demand is Anthropic’s explosive revenue growth. The company’s annualized revenue run rate jumped 233% in a single quarter, from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion by March 2026, fueled by enterprise adoption of its Claude AI models. In contrast, market participants described interest in OpenAI’s secondary shares as “tepid,” with sellers outnumbering buyers five-to-one in the first quarter of 2026.
The stark gap between valuation and fundamentals sets these listings apart. The combined $3 trillion potential market value of the IPOs would significantly alter the U.S. equity market, where the Magnificent Seven stocks already account for a third of the S&P 500’s weight. However, entry into that exclusive club is governed by strict profitability rules.
S&P Dow Jones Indices requires companies to post four straight quarters of profit before being considered for the benchmark index. Tesla, for example, listed in 2010 but only joined the S&P 500 a decade later after achieving sustained profitability. A similar timeline for Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX would mean years without the structural buying support that index membership provides. While Nasdaq has signaled it may speed up entry for large-cap newcomers into the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 remains the far larger prize, with over $20 trillion in assets tied to it.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
