Key Takeaways:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is testing buyer appetite for loading crude inside the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the US-Iran peace deal reopened the waterway, a move that could accelerate the collapse of the war-driven risk premium in global oil markets.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. issued its fourth crude tender this month offering buyers the option to load inside the Strait of Hormuz, a sign that the US-Iran interim peace deal is rapidly reshaping oil supply routes and testing how quickly normal trading patterns can resume.
"The tender is a litmus test for how quickly normal trading patterns can resume after the reopening of the strait," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. "If buyers accept in-Hormuz loading, it signals confidence that the geopolitical risk premium has collapsed."
Brent crude futures traded at $77.41 a barrel Thursday, down 2.7%, while West Texas Intermediate fell 3.1% to $74.43 — both at three-month lows. The benchmarks have declined for four consecutive sessions, the longest losing streak this year, as markets price in the return of Iranian barrels following the 14-point memorandum signed Wednesday between US President Donald Trump and Iran's leadership. Brent has now erased all gains since the US and Israel began their campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, when the benchmark traded near $76 before spiking above $90 in the weeks that followed.
The deal's 60-day negotiation period includes toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with full capacity targeted within 30 days. If fully implemented, the International Energy Agency warned the supply crisis could flip to a surplus of 5.05 million barrels a day in 2027 — a swing of more than 5% of global supply. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tilt adds demand-side risk: nine of 19 policymakers now see a rate hike later this year, up from zero three months ago, which could slow economic growth and suppress oil consumption.
ADNOC's decision to offer in-strait loading represents a significant operational shift. During the conflict, tanker operators avoided the chokepoint as US naval forces enforced a blockade of Iranian ports and Iran threatened shipping through the waterway, which handles about a fifth of the world's petroleum consumption. The tender will gauge whether buyers are willing to accept crude at a loading point that was effectively off-limits for nearly four months.
Mukesh Sahdev, chief executive of energy consultancy XAnalysts, cautioned that the volume of crude returning to the market after the strait reopens could be limited initially. "Some cargoes already exited through workaround arrangements, while shipowners may remain reluctant to send tankers back into the region amid concerns the agreement could collapse," he said. At least four Iranian oil tankers, including two supertankers capable of hauling 2 million barrels each, have already switched on their transponders and begun sailing out of the strait, according to vessel tracking data.
The IEA's warning of a potential 5.05 million barrel-a-day surplus next year underscores the scale of the market's potential reversal. Before the conflict, Iran was producing about 3.2 million barrels a day, with exports averaging roughly 1.5 million barrels. The US Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude and petrochemical products immediately after the memorandum is signed, according to a draft of the agreement seen by Bloomberg News.
The preliminary accord defers the most difficult issues — including Iran's nuclear program and the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile — to the 60-day negotiation period. It also requires the US and its partners to develop a $300 billion plan to finance Iran's economic recovery, though President Trump has denied that the US will pay war reparations.
For oil markets, the combination of returning Iranian supply, potential OPEC+ adjustments, and the Fed's rate-hike trajectory creates an unusually uncertain outlook. The last time the Fed signaled a pivot from cuts to hikes — in late 2022 — Brent crude fell 35% over the following six months as a stronger dollar and slower growth weighed on demand.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
