A Bitcoin wallet that has been dormant for more than a decade moved 500 BTC, worth approximately $40 million, to a new address on May 10, sparking debate about a potential market sale.
"Classic OTC prep, not dump pressure," Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said. "Low fees and non-CEX destination scream institutional."
The transaction, originating from an address funded in late 2013, was sent to a freshly created wallet with a transaction fee of just 0.0001 BTC, or about $8 at current prices. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, the destination address format is consistent with custodial over-the-counter (OTC) desk infrastructure, not a known centralized exchange hot wallet. Low fees typically signal non-urgent transfers, contrasting with the higher fees used to ensure fast execution for exchange deposits.
If the transaction is indeed for an OTC sale, the 500 BTC will be absorbed off-book with minimal direct impact on the public order books or Bitcoin's spot price, currently trading near $80,700. The alternative, a sale on a public exchange, could create significant downward price pressure. The next key data point will be Glassnode’s Exchange Inflow Multiple report, due May 14, which will clarify if dormant supply is beginning to hit exchanges at a larger scale.
This event's structural fingerprints align with previous large, dormant BTC movements that resolved as OTC trades.
Lookonchain data shows that 72% of similar 2026 whale moves, involving Bitcoin dormant for over seven years, were confirmed as OTC transactions within 48 hours. A comparable event in November 2025, where 500 BTC from a 2012 wallet moved to a Wintermute-linked address, was later confirmed by the firm as an OTC deal. The pattern of an aged wallet, a new destination address, a minimal fee, and no direct exchange link points more toward a pre-arranged institutional sale than a panic sell on the open market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
