XRP Rejects $2.93 Resistance, Tests $2.85 Support Amid Profit-Taking and ETF Uncertainty

Executive Summary

XRP encountered significant selling pressure after a brief surge above $2.90, failing to sustain momentum past $2.93 and retracting to test the $2.85 support level. This price action reflects immediate profit-taking and technical rejection within a volatile intraday range of 3%.

The Event in Detail

On-chain data indicates XRP briefly ascended past $2.90, reaching an intraday high of $2.93 on double-average trading volume before facing a pronounced rejection. Selling pressure intensified around the $2.90–$2.93 zone, which aligns with a previous supply block and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the June high. The token subsequently retreated, settling at $2.851, marking a 2.5% decline from its intraday peak. This movement has established a new supply zone between $2.92 and $2.93, while the $2.85 level has become a critical immediate support. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2.89, serving as an immediate battleground for price action. Technical indicators, including a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 46 and subdued MACD momentum, suggest a neutral to slightly bearish bias in the near term. The Bollinger Band width has narrowed to its lowest level in 45 days, historically signaling potential for increased volatility.

Market Implications

The failure of XRP to capitalize on underlying bullish on-chain signals highlights a cautious investor sentiment, largely driven by unresolved legal risks and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite a 41% increase in XRP whale transactions exceeding $10 million and a 35% jump in daily active addresses over the past five days, price action has remained stagnant. This disconnect points to a market prioritizing regulatory clarity and macro stability over immediate accumulation trends. The ongoing SEC appeal process, which could potentially reverse classifications of institutional sales, introduces headline risk. Furthermore, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed SEC approvals for XRP-spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and progress on the Market Structure Bill, dampening investor optimism. These regulatory impediments, coupled with XRP's comparatively limited exposure to ETF inflows compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, act as bottlenecks on speculative interest from institutional investors. Current liquidity around the $2.85 zone is fragmented, making it vulnerable to rapid price swings if this critical support level fails, potentially leading to a test of $2.80.

Expert Commentary

Analyst Shaurya Malwa noted the high intraday volatility and profit-taking activity following the failed breakout. Technical analysts point to the $2.93 level as a crucial trigger for directional bias; a sustained breach above this resistance could pave the way toward $3.28 and $3.60, with intermediate resistance at $3.02. Conversely, a breakdown below the $2.82 support level could expose price targets of $2.75 and $2.64. The $2.80 mark is considered a crucial defense point, representing a significant realized cost basis for a large segment of holders, with robust support near $2.55 at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Santiment data suggests that rising FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) signals might paradoxically precede a potential rebound.

Broader Context

XRP's current struggle to maintain upward momentum contrasts with its significant rally experienced after the August 2025 resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. SEC. That landmark decision, which removed a major regulatory overhang, saw XRP's price surge to multi-year highs, including a 480% monthly gain to $3.40 in July 2025. This period also saw the launch of the first US-listed spot XRP ETF (REX-Osprey XRPR) and CME Group's XRP futures contracts, signaling increasing institutional acceptance and integration into traditional finance. Ripple’s strategic moves, including a $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road in April 2025 and a substantial increase in XRP Ledger (XRPL) transaction activity (800% increase since 2023), underscore its long-term efforts to enhance liquidity and services for institutional clients. However, the broader cryptocurrency market remains sensitive to macroeconomic forces, including central bank policies, inflationary pressures, and the strength of the U.S. Dollar. The DXY index, for example, has historically shown an inverse correlation with Bitcoin's price, influencing overall risk appetite in digital asset markets. While the long-term outlook for XRP is tied to continued regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, short-term price movements remain highly susceptible to global economic conditions and ongoing legal developments. Bloomberg analysts forecast a 95% probability of additional XRP ETF approvals by year-end 2025, with key decisions anticipated between October 18 and October 25, 2025.

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