Edgen Crypto·Nov 29 2025, 10:01
[1] PanDe Ethereum ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock ... (https://x.com/santakaikan/status/199462605230 ...)[2] 3085 Quote - Pando Ethereum ETF Fund - Bloomberg.com (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/3085:HK ...)[3] Two new cryptocurrency ETFs listed on the Hong Kong Stock ... (https://www.binance.com/en-TR/square/post/284 ...)
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Nov 29 2025, 11:35
Ethereum Navigates Critical Price Zone After Trendline Breach
## Executive Summary **Ethereum (ETH)** is currently navigating a period of heightened technical uncertainty after breaching a key ascending trendline. The asset has fallen below the critical $3,200 support level and the 100-hourly simple moving average, signaling a bearish short-term outlook. However, this movement is contrasted by ETH's position above a decade-long support trendline, creating a complex picture for traders and investors. The market is now focused on whether major support levels around $3,000 will hold or if a deeper correction is imminent. ## The Event in Detail Recent price action saw **Ethereum** fail to sustain momentum above the $3,550 resistance level, leading to a more than 5% slide. This decline pushed the price down to $3,153, breaking through several support structures in the process. A key technical event in this downturn was the break below a widely watched ascending trendline, which had previously supported the price. Currently, **ETH** is trading below the $3,200 mark, a psychological and technical level that is now acting as resistance. The asset also remains under its 100-hourly moving average, a further indicator of bearish control in the short term. ## Market Implications The breach of the ascending trendline has shifted the market bias to bearish in the immediate term. A sustained break below the $3,150 support area could trigger further selling pressure, exposing downside targets at $3,050 and the significant psychological level of $3,000. Should that level fail, market analysis points to a potential retest of the $2,880–$2,850 support zone, with some projections indicating a possible slide toward $2,650. Conversely, for a bullish reversal to gain credibility, buyers would need to reclaim the $3,350–$3,500 resistance zone. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside or continued consolidation. ## Expert Commentary Market analysis is currently divided, reflecting the conflicting technical signals. One perspective emphasizes the bearish breakdown, citing the failure to hold above $3,500 and the subsequent break of multiple support levels as evidence that a deeper correction is underway. This view aligns with the initial analysis of a trendline break signaling a potential move toward $2,650. However, another school of thought is focused on the bigger picture. Analysts note that **ETH** is testing a pivotal, decade-long support trendline that has been a factor since 2016. Holding this long-term support could indicate a significant market bottom is forming, despite the short-term volatility. There are also indications that **ETH** broke through a separate *bearish* trend line after holding support near $2,750, suggesting a potential recovery targeting the $3,000 level. ## Broader Context This period of volatility occurs within a broader multi-month downtrend for **Ethereum**. The current price action represents a critical test of this long-term bearish structure against a historical, decade-long support line. The outcome of this technical battle could set the directional tone for **ETH** for the medium term. While the immediate pressure is bearish, the resilience of the long-term support provides a counter-narrative that suggests the potential for a significant market reversal. The resolution of these conflicting patterns is paramount for determining the next major price cycle for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Nov 29 2025, 07:16
Arthur Hayes Reverses Stance on Monad, Citing Token Structure Risks and Sparking Volatility
## Executive Summary Arthur Hayes, the influential co-founder of BitMEX, has publicly reversed his investment thesis on **Monad (MON)**, a new Layer 1 blockchain token. After initially forecasting a price of $10 and triggering a 55% price surge, Hayes issued a strong warning that the token could crash significantly. He attributed this risk to its underlying structure as a "VC coin," which he argues is unsustainable and highly susceptible to sentiment-driven volatility. The event has ignited debate over the influence of prominent figures and the inherent risks of venture-capital-heavy token distributions in the cryptocurrency market. ## The Event in Detail Following the mainnet launch of **Monad**, Arthur Hayes disclosed his investment and issued a bullish price prediction of $10 for the **MON** token. The endorsement from the widely followed investor sparked immediate and aggressive market buying, causing the token's price to rally by 55% from its launch price. However, in a sudden turn, Hayes publicly disavowed his position, describing the project with strong negative language and stating his belief that it was fundamentally flawed. His rationale centered on the concept of it being a "VC coin," implying that its tokenomics are heavily weighted toward early institutional investors. According to Hayes, this structure creates an unstable market environment where small capital inflows or shifts in influencer sentiment can trigger disproportionately large price swings. ## Market Implications The rapid reversal from Hayes has introduced extreme volatility into the **MON** market during its critical early price-discovery phase. For investors, this event serves as a practical case study on the perils of tokens with heavy venture capital backing, where the concentration of tokens among early insiders can lead to instability. The sharp price movements underscore the significant impact that a single influential voice can have on the valuation of an early-stage crypto asset, creating a precarious environment for retail participants. ## Expert Commentary In his analysis, Arthur Hayes warned that **Monad** could potentially "crash 99%," directly linking this outcome to its token structure. He elaborated that the token's design makes it vulnerable to market manipulation and sentiment swings, rather than trading on fundamental value. His commentary suggests a belief that the initial price run-up was not supported by organic demand but was instead a speculative bubble inflated by his own initial endorsement. This public criticism from a notable investor casts significant doubt on the project's short-term viability and tokenomics model. ## Broader Context This specific, project-level bearishness on **Monad** stands in contrast to Hayes's broader macroeconomic outlook. He remains publicly bullish on the cryptocurrency market as a whole, predicting a prolonged bull run lasting into 2026 or 2027. Hayes bases this long-term thesis on the expectation of continued global money printing and fiscal expansion by governments worldwide. His dual stance—macro-bullish on crypto but micro-bearish on projects with what he deems to be poor fundamentals—highlights a sophisticated investment strategy. It reinforces his view that while the broader market tide may rise, not all assets will survive, echoing his previous warnings that up to 99% of all cryptocurrencies could ultimately fail.
Nov 29 2025, 06:17
TF Securities Faces CSRC Probe as Hong Kong Unit Wins Crypto Trading License
## The Event in Detail The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated a formal investigation into **TF Securities** for alleged violations related to information disclosure and the illicit provision of financing. This regulatory action on the mainland places the parent company under significant legal and financial scrutiny. In stark contrast, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, **TF International Securities and Futures Limited**, has successfully obtained a Type 3 license for virtual assets from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). This license authorizes the subsidiary to conduct and offer virtual asset trading services, marking a significant step into the regulated digital asset ecosystem in Hong Kong. ## Market Implications The CSRC investigation introduces substantial uncertainty for **TF Securities**. Such probes can result in severe financial penalties, operational disruptions, and a negative impact on the company’s valuation and access to capital. The charge of illegally providing financing is particularly serious, suggesting potential credit and liquidity risks that could concern investors. Conversely, the acquisition of a virtual asset license in Hong Kong is a strategic success. It allows **TF Securities** to tap into new revenue streams by catering to the growing demand for regulated digital asset services. This move aligns with Hong Kong's broader strategy to establish itself as a global hub for the Web3 industry, potentially offering a significant long-term growth avenue for the firm, firewalled from its mainland regulatory issues. ## Expert Commentary This situation exemplifies the increasingly complex and divergent regulatory landscape facing Chinese financial institutions. While mainland China continues a strict enforcement and anti-corruption campaign, Hong Kong is deliberately creating a regulated, pro-business environment for virtual assets. The strategic decision by **TF Securities** to pursue digital asset operations through a Hong Kong subsidiary appears to be a calculated move to isolate risk. This "dual-track" strategy—navigating stringent regulations at home while pursuing growth in more permissive jurisdictions like Hong Kong—may become a standard operating procedure for other Chinese firms aiming to engage with the global digital economy. ## Broader Context The developments at **TF Securities** are a microcosm of the "one country, two systems" principle playing out in the financial sector. Mainland China’s focus remains on market stability and regulatory control, underscored by ongoing investigations and a general aversion to cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is leveraging its autonomy to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, positioning itself as a key bridge between mainland capital and global crypto markets. The licensing of firms like **TF International** is a critical component of this strategy, intended to attract institutional investment and legitimize the virtual asset class within a regulated perimeter.