Executive Summary

Matrixport's latest analysis points to the 21-week moving average of Bitcoin (BTC), currently positioned at $109,899, as a pivotal technical indicator defining the cryptocurrency's bull and bear market phases. This level is deemed crucial for the continuation of the present market uptrend, which is distinctly driven by institutional participation rather than retail speculation.

The Event in Detail

On September 24, 2025, Matrixport released analysis indicating Bitcoin's 21-week moving average (approximately 147 days) stands at $109,899. This specific moving average has historically demonstrated success in identifying major market trends, accurately predicting the bull markets of 2020 and 2023, as well as the bear market trend of 2022. The firm suggests that maintaining Bitcoin's price above this threshold is vital for sustaining the current bull market cycle. Conversely, a fall below $109,899 could signal a more challenging market environment.

Market Implications

The current Bitcoin bull market, the fifth of its kind, is notable for its institutional backing, contrasting with previous cycles primarily fueled by retail investors. This cycle has already experienced three distinct upward phases within the broader uptrend, more than the two observed in the 2020-2021 period. Data indicates significant institutional inflows into the crypto market year-to-date, totaling approximately $140.5 billion. Of this, $63.1 billion originated from stablecoins, $52.4 billion was directed into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures, and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy (MSTR), and $24.9 billion flowed into Ether. Recent trends suggest a renewed institutional preference for Bitcoin; U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $3.48 billion in the current month, while Ether ETFs have garnered $406.87 million. Furthermore, demand from digital asset treasuries, particularly those focused on Ethereum, may be showing signs of deceleration. This shift toward institutional investment has led to a maturing investor base where long-term holders are more inclined to realize gains earlier, which tends to mitigate parabolic price surges and foster a smoother market structure.

Expert Commentary

Matrixport's analysis underscores the $109,899 21-week moving average as the decisive bull-bear dividing line for Bitcoin. The firm posits that as long as the price remains above this moving average, the market will continue within a bull market cycle. Market observers note that while the days of 2,000%+ cycles may be less frequent, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream, institutionally held asset is enhancing its investability. Less volatile drawdowns, potentially elongated market cycles, and stronger risk-adjusted performance are factors contributing to this increased institutional appeal.

Broader Context

Bitcoin's market stabilization in Q3 2025 is supported by macroeconomic tailwinds, including an expansion of global liquidity, with the U.S. M2 money supply surpassing $127 trillion, and a weakening U.S. dollar. On-chain metrics, such as the MVRV Z-Score and VDD, alongside substantial ETF inflows of $160 billion, further indicate a sustained pattern of institutional accumulation and positive market sentiment. The Federal Reserve's 90.3% probability of a rate cut and post-halving supply constraints reinforce Bitcoin's role as a hedge against financial repression. While risks like trade tensions and a projected global GDP growth deceleration to 2.9% in Q3 2025 persist, historical correlations suggest that Bitcoin may continue to outperform traditional assets during periods of liquidity expansion. The current dynamics align with historical bull patterns, fostering a positive outlook for the remainder of 2025.