Executive Summary
Gemini (GEMI), a digital asset platform, is projected for a 20-25% upside in its stock price, driven by the successful adoption of its crypto reward card and strategic expansion into the European market facilitated by Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. Mizuho Securities initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $30 price target. This projection comes despite a nearly 21% year-to-date decline in the stock and concerns from firms like KBW regarding the company's path to profitability, which is not anticipated until 2027. The current share price of GEMI is approximately $25.29, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.97 billion. Morgan Stanley set a price target of $29.00, while Goldman Sachs assigned a $25.00 price target with a Neutral rating.
The Event in Detail
Gemini's growth trajectory is significantly influenced by two primary factors: its crypto reward credit card and its recent regulatory approval for European expansion. The Gemini Credit Card has emerged as a key customer acquisition tool, with sign-ups quadrupling since 2024, reaching nearly 31,000 by August 2025. Data indicates that approximately 50% of cardholders transition to become monthly exchange traders, illustrating a direct conversion mechanism from spending to cryptocurrency engagement. This "flywheel" effect positions the card as a central driver for retail user growth and recurring revenue.
Simultaneously, Gemini secured licensing under the European Union's MiCA framework in August, marking a pivotal step for its international strategy. This regulatory approval allows Gemini to introduce a suite of new products to over 400 million European investors, including Gemini Staking for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), and Gemini Perpetuals, a regulated derivatives product offered under a MiFID II license. This expansion aims to establish Gemini as a comprehensive, compliant crypto trading platform across the EU bloc, standardizing operations across 30 EU jurisdictions and reinforcing its "compliance first" approach.
Market Implications
The analyst consensus suggests a 25% upside for Gemini's stock from current trading levels, reflecting cautious optimism in a volatile crypto equity market. Mizuho projects elevated compound annual growth rates through 2027, including approximately 46% for exchange-based revenues and over 110% for card-based revenues. Trading services are expected to constitute roughly 70% of Gemini's 2024 revenue. In its valuation analysis, Mizuho applied a 7x multiple to Gemini's estimated 2027 EV/Revenue, a 4-turn discount compared to the peer group median of 11x, attributed to the company's smaller scale and anticipated unprofitability until 2027. The MiCA approval is expected to catalyze a significant increase in regulated crypto offerings, potentially driving an expansion of the EU crypto market, which is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2025.
Mizuho Securities initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $30 price target, emphasizing Gemini's "compliance first" approach and the effectiveness of its credit card as a customer acquisition tool. Morgan Stanley set an "Equalweight" rating with a $29.00 price target, reflecting a potential 25% upside based on scenario analysis. Goldman Sachs issued a "Neutral" rating with a $25.00 price target, acknowledging the company's rapid growth, particularly in trading services. Conversely, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) expressed reservations, noting that while Gemini's growth profile may exceed that of its peers, continued unprofitability throughout the forecast period warrants a valuation discount due to elevated execution and market risk.
Broader Context
Gemini's strategy aligns with a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrency into mainstream financial products and services. The success of its crypto reward card parallels similar initiatives, such as Coinbase's upcoming 4% Bitcoin Rewards Card, indicating a growing focus on normalizing crypto through everyday spending. This push for utility over pure speculation contributes to increased retail adoption, with global crypto users projected to reach one billion by 2030. The comprehensive MiCA framework, set to take full effect by the end of 2024, is poised to reshape the regulatory landscape for over 10,000 crypto businesses in the EU. Its objectives include investor protection, market integrity, and fostering innovation by harmonizing regulations across all 27 member states. The move by Gemini to secure this license and expand its regulated offerings highlights a commitment to navigating regulatory complexities, potentially setting a benchmark for other crypto firms seeking to operate within established financial frameworks. This regulatory clarity is expected to enhance investor confidence and drive significant growth in the European crypto market. Gemini's post-IPO performance and institutional attention underscore a renewed alignment between crypto-native firms and traditional financial institutions, signaling a maturation of the digital asset industry.
source:[1] Gemini stock projected for 25% upside driven by crypto reward card 'flywheel' and EU license (https://www.theblock.co/post/373714/gemini-st ...)[2] Mizuho initiates coverage on Gemini Space Station stock with Outperform rating (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)[3] Gemini Launches Staking and Derivatives for EU Customers (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)
Edgen Crypto·Oct 07 2025, 18:00
