Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, predicts the US will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve by year-end, driven by legislative actions and a policy shift towards treating Bitcoin as a sovereign asset.

Executive Summary

Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn projects a high probability of the United States establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) by the end of the year. This assessment follows legislative efforts like H.R. 5166 and an executive order to integrate Bitcoin into national financial strategy, signaling a potential shift in global financial paradigms.

The Event in Detail

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, states there is a strong likelihood that the U.S. government will announce the creation of an SBR before year-end. This initiative gained momentum in March 2025 with an executive order directing the Treasury Department to consolidate seized Bitcoin and digital assets into a centralized reserve, treating it as a sovereign-grade asset akin to gold.

More recently, the U.S. House advanced Bill H.R. 5166, requiring the Treasury to report within 90 days on frameworks for holding and securing federal Bitcoin assets. The bill specifically focuses on safeguarding and governing existing or future seized Bitcoin, not authorizing new purchases.

The U.S. currently holds approximately 198,000 to 207,000 BTC, valued between $17 billion and $23 billion, making it the largest known state holder. Previous policy involved auctioning seized assets, a practice now shifting towards strategic retention.

Market Implications

The establishment of an SBR would signify a profound shift in U.S. digital asset policy, elevating Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a geopolitical tool and national asset.

Short-term, this could contribute to increased market speculation and price volatility for Bitcoin. Long-term, it is anticipated to drive further institutional interest, foster regulatory clarity, and influence global financial strategies.

The move could challenge the traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar and gold in global trade by providing a new hedge against geopolitical risks.

The SBR's formation could also set a precedent for other nations, with countries like China, Bhutan, and El Salvador already holding notable Bitcoin reserves. Other nations including Russia, Japan, Brazil, and Poland are exploring similar strategies.

Expert Commentary

While Alex Thorn projects a high probability for a 2025 SBR announcement, some market participants express skepticism. Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, suggests a 2026 timeline is more likely.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, confirms the SBR as a national priority, indicating an intent to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, emphasized the urgency for the U.S. to acquire Bitcoin this year, warning of the risk of being "front-run" by other nations.

Broader Context

Beyond H.R. 5166, Senator Lummis has proposed the BITCOIN Act, which advocates for the acquisition of 1 million Bitcoin over five years, funded partially by selling Federal Reserve gold certificates. This legislative proposal, if passed, would represent an even bolder commitment to Bitcoin as a national asset.

The strategic shift views Bitcoin as a tool for national security and financial stability, emphasizing its scarcity and security attributes akin to "digital gold."

At the state level, Texas has already established its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with New Hampshire and Arizona passing digital asset investment laws, indicating broader domestic momentum for such initiatives.