FTX Forfeited $29B in Premature Anthropic Stake Sale

FTX Forfeited $29B in Potential Gains on Anthropic Sale

The most expensive early exit in AI history belongs to the FTX bankruptcy estate. In 2021, FTX invested $500 million for an 8% stake in the-nascent AI company Anthropic. Following the exchange's collapse, the estate sold that position in February 2024 for $1.3 billion. This was a reasonable outcome at the time but proved to be a fraction of its potential. Fueled by the AI sector's explosive growth, Anthropic’s valuation has since climbed to $380 billion, making that same 8% stake worth an estimated $30.4 billion today. The sale by the bankruptcy estate locked in a loss of over $29 billion in potential value, realizing less than 5% of what the holding would ultimately be worth.

Broader Portfolio Shows $47.8B in Missed Appreciation

Beyond Anthropic, a reconstruction of Sam Bankman-Fried’s major venture bets reveals a portfolio that would have appreciated by $47.8 billion if held intact. The collection of assets, spanning AI, blockchain infrastructure, and fintech, would have grown from a cost basis of approximately $4.7 billion to a notional value of $52.5 billion. For example, the estate sold between 25 million and 30 million Solana (SOL) tokens for $64 each in April 2024, raising around $1.9 billion. Those sales were executed at a steep discount to SOL's market price of $174 at the time. Similarly, a 7.6% stake in Robinhood, acquired in May 2022 for $648 million, would be worth an estimated $5.7 billion today as the fintech company's market cap approaches $75 billion.

A Winning Strategy Undone by a Losing Structure

The disastrous end of FTX obscures the remarkable success of its underlying investment strategy. SBF correctly identified and invested in several of the decade's top-performing private technology assets. The firm's fatal flaw was structural: it used short-term, liquid customer deposits to fund long-duration, illiquid venture capital positions. When a surge in withdrawal requests hit $6 billion in November 2022, FTX could not liquidate its venture holdings quickly enough to meet its obligations, triggering a complete collapse. While the bankruptcy estate ultimately recovered approximately $18 billion and is making creditors more than whole on their 2022 claims, the full potential value of the assets—estimated at $52.5 billion—was never realized by those who were owed money.