Edgen Crypto·Sep 30 2025, 17:42
[1] The Daily: Visa pilots stablecoin payments, Bloomberg's LTC, SOL and XRP ETF approval odds hit 100%, and more | The Block (https://www.theblock.co/post/372933/the-daily ...)[2] Visa Direct tests stablecoins as cash equivalent for instant transfers - Cointelegraph (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)[3] Bloomberg analyst puts odds of Litecoin, Solana and XRP ETF approvals at 100% after 19b-4s rendered 'meaningless' | The Block (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)
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Nov 15 2025, 01:16
Bitcoin Enters Wyckoff Distribution, Signaling Potential Decline to $86,000
## Executive Summary Bitcoin's price trajectory has entered a Wyckoff Distribution pattern, as of November 14, 2025, suggesting a potential shift towards a markdown phase. This technical development indicates that the cryptocurrency's bull market may be nearing its conclusion, with analytical models pointing to a potential decline to $86,000. ## The Event in Detail On November 14, 2025, Bitcoin's value dropped below $100,000, coinciding with the confirmation of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Analyst @follis_ on X identified this structure as tracking the classic five-phase Wyckoff Distribution, a pattern historically associated with macro market tops. The analysis details a sequence of events: a **Buying Climax (BC)** observed when Bitcoin surged above $122,000, followed by an **Automatic Reaction (AR)**. Subsequent **Secondary Tests (ST)** failed to establish new higher highs. A push towards $126,200 in early October was characterized as an **Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD)**, serving as a final bullish deviation indicative of demand exhaustion. Following these phases, Bitcoin printed multiple **Last Points of Supply (LPSY)** and breached its mid-range support near $110,000, confirming the initiation of **Phase D** of the distribution. The subsequent decline below the **AR/SOW (Sign of Weakness) zone** of $102,000–$104,000 transitioned BTC into **Phase E**, marking the markdown phase and accelerating the price decrease. By the end of the week, Bitcoin had traded below $95,000 on major exchanges. Based on Wyckoff's measured-move method, which analyzes the $122,000–$104,000 distribution band, an $18,000 downside projection targets $86,000 as the primary objective. ## Market Implications This technical development implies a significant market correction for Bitcoin. The identified **$86,000 target** suggests substantial downside risk from current levels. Furthermore, the **$93,000 to $94,000 range** has been identified as a critical psychological and structural support level. Analyst Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant noted that investors who acquired Bitcoin in the preceding 6–12 months possess an average cost basis near $94,000, rendering this zone a crucial point for market stability. A sustained break below this level could intensify selling pressure and negatively impact broader investor sentiment, potentially leading to further market uncertainty across the digital asset ecosystem. ## Expert Commentary Analyst @follis_ on X indicated that the alignment with the Wyckoff Distribution schematic is sufficiently strong to suggest that the current Bitcoin bull market "might actually be over." This assessment is based on the pattern's historical reliability in forecasting significant market shifts. Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant provided insights into investor positioning, highlighting the importance of the $94,000 support level due to the average cost basis of recent investors. ## Broader Context Prior to this recent price action, Bitcoin had experienced a period of significant bullish momentum throughout 2025, with prices exceeding previous all-time highs of $112,000. This rally was fueled by substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), increased institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and political support. Public company holdings of Bitcoin nearly doubled from 476,000 BTC to 869,000 BTC within the year. While a sustained bullish sentiment previously projected a cycle high of $175,000, current technical indicators suggest a potential reversal of this trend. Institutional investors, as reported by Sygnum Bank on November 11, 2025, continue to increase cryptocurrency allocations, with 61% planning to raise digital asset investments. However, the report also indicated an anticipation of a downturn heading into 2026. The primary motivation for institutional investment has shifted from speculation to diversification, with actively managed strategies and broader ETF exposure gaining prominence. Despite this long-term institutional interest, the immediate technical outlook points to a period of distribution and potential price markdown, underscoring the volatility inherent in the digital asset market.
Nov 15 2025, 01:08
Dallas Fed's Logan Signals Difficulty in Supporting December Rate Cut Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns
## Executive Summary Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan has signaled significant difficulty in supporting an interest rate cut in December, citing ongoing concerns about high inflation and the pace of labor market cooling. This stance, from a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (**FOMC**), introduces caution into market expectations that had previously priced in more aggressive rate reductions. ## The Event in Detail Ms. Logan explicitly stated that given current economic conditions, it would be “difficult” to endorse another December rate cut. Her position is notable due to her role as a voting member on the **FOMC**, reflecting a growing caution within the Federal Reserve. This contrasts with earlier market sentiment which had anticipated more aggressive rate cuts. Logan emphasized her intent to closely monitor incoming data and financial conditions before any decisions are made. The Fed's hesitation is rooted in several critical macroeconomic indicators, including persistent inflation trends, price stability metrics, prevailing labor market conditions, and global economic developments. ## Market Implications The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, driven by inflation and employment data, has direct implications for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traditionally, tighter monetary policy tends to decrease investment in such assets. Despite this, persistent global inflation continues to drive investor interest in cryptocurrencies as a potential hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. A **MEXC** survey from Q1-Q2 2025 indicated that 46% of global crypto users view digital assets as an inflation hedge. This sentiment emerged even as Bitcoin experienced a 3.03% drop over 24 hours in August 2025, falling to $117,000 after briefly topping $122,000, following gloomy inflation data. Q3 2025 witnessed a significant surge in crypto activity, with average daily trading volume jumping by 43.8% to $155.0 billion, underscoring continued market engagement despite broader economic uncertainties. ## Expert Commentary Most analysts anticipate the Federal Reserve will delay the first interest rate cut until at least May 2025, primarily due to core inflation remaining at 3.1%. While **Bitcoin** has stabilized near $82,700 in some periods, experts caution about potential crypto market volatility, citing external risks such as tariffs that could fuel future inflationary pressures. Conversely, some predictions suggest **BTC** could reach $175,000 in 2025, with Blockware Solutions forecasting a potential price of $400,000 per **BTC**. The downside risk is projected to find strong support around the $70,000 mark. Furthermore, **Ethereum** (**ETH**) is predicted to reach $5,400 by year-end, driven by a potential
Nov 15 2025, 01:00
Federal Reserve Governor Milan Signals Dovish Shift, Citing Stablecoins' Influence on Neutral Interest Rates
## Executive Summary Federal Reserve Governor Milan has advocated for a more dovish monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, citing recent economic data and the significant influence of stablecoins on the neutral interest rate. Milan’s assessment highlights weakening labor market data and better-than-expected inflation figures as primary drivers for a policy shift. He specifically points to the proliferation of stablecoins as a factor that could depress the neutral interest rate, or "r-star," by up to 0.4 percentage points, suggesting that current interest rates may be excessively tight. ## The Event in Detail Speaking to economists in New York, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that economic data received since the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting supports a "dovish stance." He noted that "inflation data has been better than we expected" and that labor market data has "weakened." This assessment aligns with reports of the US JOLTS Job Openings data coming in lower than expected at 7.181 million. Governor Milan elaborated that the growing adoption of crypto tokens linked to the US dollar, specifically stablecoins, is poised to depress what economists refer to as the "r-star," or neutral interest rate. Citing previous research, he indicated that stablecoin growth could reduce the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by 0.4 percentage points. Milan emphasized that stablecoins are already increasing demand for US Treasury bonds and other dollar-denominated liquid assets from non-US buyers, a demand he expects to continue growing. He declared, "Stablecoins could become an elephant worth trillions of dollars in central bankers' rooms." This additional supply of loanable capital in the economy is expected to depress neutral interest rates. Milan concluded that if neutral interest rates decline, the Federal Reserve "needs to lower policy interest rates to avoid dragging down economic growth," suggesting a federal funds rate around 2% would be appropriate if the neutral rate is around 0.5%. ## Market Implications A more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, characterized by interest rate cuts, is generally interpreted as a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Reduced interest rates typically increase liquidity in financial markets and lower borrowing costs, which in turn can boost investor risk appetite. Following the release of lower-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data, **Bitcoin (BTC)** price experienced a jump of over 2%, trading at $111,825, while **Ethereum (ETH)** surged more than 2%. Furthermore, a weakening US dollar, often a consequence of falling interest rates, can nominally strengthen assets priced in dollars, such as **BTC**. However, market sentiment remains susceptible to fluctuations in Fed policy. Around November 14, 2025, a perceived hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve led to a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market. During this period, **BTC** experienced a sell-off, declining between 5.62% and 6.55% in a 24-hour period, pushing its value below the $100,000 mark to a six-month low of approximately $95,000 to $97,000. This decline was attributed to diminishing expectations for a December rate cut and notable whale selling, with long-term holders offloading over 815,000 **BTC** in the preceding month. Data from Coinbase-owned crypto exchange Deribit indicated a surge in demand for downside protection in derivatives markets, particularly for protective puts below the $100,000 strike price. ## Expert Commentary Federal Reserve Governor Milan's remarks provide a key expert perspective on the intersection of monetary policy and digital assets. His assertion that "all the data we have received points to a dovish stance" underscores the justification for potential policy adjustments. His detailed analysis of stablecoins' impact on neutral interest rates integrates this emerging financial instrument into core macroeconomic considerations, highlighting its growing influence on traditional financial frameworks. ## Broader Context Governor Milan's focus on stablecoins and their potential to depress the neutral interest rate reflects a growing recognition within traditional financial institutions of the systemic relevance of digital assets. This discussion positions cryptocurrencies not merely as speculative instruments but as factors influencing fundamental macroeconomic variables. The ongoing interplay between inflation data, labor market health, and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions continues to be a critical determinant for both conventional financial markets and the broader crypto ecosystem, leading to periods of both strategic opportunity and pronounced volatility.