Crypto Market Signals Prolonged Bearish Trend, According to Analyst Ansem

Executive Summary

Crypto market analyst Ansem has issued a cautionary outlook for major cryptocurrencies, suggesting a prevailing bearish trend. This assessment is predicated on the observation of Swing Failure Patterns (SFP) in the weekly charts of XRP, SOL, and ETH, alongside Bitcoin's (BTC) failure to sustain its 2024 highs. Ansem indicates that this market behavior suggests a culmination of a prolonged distribution phase rather than the genesis of a new bull market, highlighting a weakened market structure and an absence of novel narrative drivers.

The Event in Detail

Ansem's analysis centers on distinct technical indicators across the cryptocurrency market. Specifically, a clear Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) has been identified in the weekly charts of XRP, SOL, and ETH. This pattern, similar to Litecoin's (LTC) trend observed in 2021, signals a termination of upward momentum rather than the commencement of a new bullish cycle. Concurrently, Bitcoin's (BTC) price has fallen below its 2024 high, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The analyst emphasizes that the extensive distribution phase, spanning approximately 10 months, may be nearing its conclusion, attributing this to a perceived dearth of new market catalysts. Furthermore, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a significant corporate holder of Bitcoin, has experienced its stock price dipping below its 200-day moving average for the first time since its peak last November. This development has transformed the 200-day moving average into a resistance level, signaling a weak underlying market structure.

Ansem maintains that this bearish perspective will persist unless Bitcoin (BTC) decisively reclaims the $112,000 level.

Market Implications

This analysis by a recognized Key Opinion Leader (KOL) could reinforce existing bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further price corrections across major cryptocurrencies. A cautious investment stance may prevail until Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates a sustained recovery above critical resistance levels. The noted absence of new market catalysts, as highlighted by Ansem, could contribute to prolonged market stagnation or further declines. While Ansem's outlook points to capitulation concerns if Bitcoin (BTC) fails to establish strong support between the $110,000–$115,000 range, some analyses suggest a divergence. AMBCrypto posits that Bitcoin (BTC) may be in a post-All-Time High (ATH) distribution phase, characterized by consolidation rather than an outright sell-off. CryptoQuant, meanwhile, identifies two key divergences from previous cycle shocks, suggesting the current market movement is more indicative of distribution than panic. Notably, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are exhibiting conviction, treating the current pullback as a potential accumulation opportunity, evidenced by neutral LTH-SOPR readings and continued withdrawals of Bitcoin (BTC) from exchanges. This indicates a maturing market with a shift towards long-term holders, framing the pullback as structured consolidation.

Expert Commentary

Ansem, a prominent crypto analyst, explicitly stated that a clear SFP in XRP, SOL, and ETH suggests "the market trend resembles a momentum termination rather than the beginning of a new bull market." He further elaborated that Bitcoin's (BTC) current position, having fallen below its 2024 high, combined with the lack of "new narrative drivers," underpins his view that a "prolonged 10-month distribution phase may be nearing its end." Ansem unequivocally asserts that his "bearish outlook will remain unchanged unless BTC reclaims the $112,000 level." This technical perspective is complemented by market observations, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) falling below its 200-day moving average, a metric cited by Ansem as an indicator of "weak market structure."

Broader Context

The current bearish sentiment contrasts with earlier phases of 2025, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) surpass $100,000, largely propelled by demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broader institutional adoption. Significant inflows into ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF, underscored a growing appetite for Bitcoin as an institutional-grade asset. The market also saw positive momentum from narratives surrounding AI-powered crypto agents, the DeFi Renaissance with improving regulatory clarity, and the expansion of ecosystems like Solana. However, the recent technical signals and the absence of new market narratives have shifted focus towards potential downside risks and a period of consolidation or further correction, diverging from the previously observed upward trajectory driven by institutional and retail demand.