Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicts global money printing will extend the crypto bull market into 2026, positioning Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against currency debasement.

Executive Summary

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes anticipates that aggressive global money printing, primarily influenced by potential U.S. fiscal policies, will prolong the current cryptocurrency bull market into 2026. Hayes positions Bitcoin as a superior long-term asset, capable of outperforming traditional investments when adjusted for currency debasement, thereby attracting institutional capital seeking inflation hedges.

The Event in Detail

Arthur Hayes forecasts a crypto bull run extending beyond Q4 2025, into 2026, attributing this to macro catalysts. He suggests that a potential Trump administration would likely implement significant fiscal stimulus, such as "Covid cheques," to bolster programs, potentially leading to increased money printing. Hayes indicates that the departure of current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would further accelerate such monetary policies. Short-term market analysis suggests Bitcoin must clear the $117,000 price level to sustain its advance, as a substantial supply of the cryptocurrency was acquired at this point, potentially triggering sell-pressure.

Market Implications

Expansive central bank stimulus measures, such as those seen in China's past efforts, historically increase global liquidity, which often flows into risk assets, including Bitcoin. For instance, Bitcoin surged 12.3% in September 2024, coinciding with China's prior stimulus initiatives. From January 2020 to May 2025, a $100,000 investment in Bitcoin yielded an 863% return, significantly surpassing gold's 90% gain over the same period. Post-halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's inflation rate reduced to 0.85%, below gold's 2.3%. Institutional adoption has grown, with 59% of institutional portfolios reportedly including Bitcoin by Q1 2025. Corporate treasuries, exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, are increasingly utilizing Bitcoin as a balance-sheet hedge against inflation.

Expert Commentary

Arthur Hayes has consistently advocated for a long-term investment horizon in Bitcoin, cautioning against short-term speculation. He previously projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end in April 2025. Hayes has publicly endorsed tariffs, stating, "I LOVE TARIFFS," arguing that global trade imbalances caused by such policies will necessitate central bank intervention and money printing, which he believes is favorable for Bitcoin. Analysts generally concur that current conditions are conducive to a prolonged bull phase but advise investors to remain cognizant of inherent market volatility, regulatory changes, and broader financial market dynamics.

Broader Context

Ongoing accommodative monetary policies, including low interest rates and quantitative easing, by central banks worldwide are anticipated to dilute the purchasing power of fiat currencies, thereby directing investors towards alternative assets. Bitcoin's structural advantages, such as its decentralized, immutable ledger and a strictly enforced supply cap of 21 million coins, provide a distinct contrast to gold, whose supply increases annually by 2.3%. While critics often highlight Bitcoin's volatility (e.g., a 6% drop in 2025 when gold rose 6%), proponents argue this volatility is a characteristic that enables substantial long-term compounding gains, positioning it as a risk-on asset. In contrast, gold typically functions as a risk-off haven. JPMorgan analysis indicates that Bitcoin's fair value could potentially reach $126,000 to align with gold's $5 trillion market capitalization, assuming comparable risk-adjusted returns. However, forecasts also suggest a looming 2026 bear market, potentially triggered by Federal Reserve rate hikes and economic deceleration, historically leading to price corrections of 30-50% during monetary tightening cycles. Investors are adopting diversified strategies, such as 60/30/10 core-satellite models, and utilizing derivatives to manage volatility.