Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Signals Rally, Analyst Says BTC Undervalued

Edgen Crypto·Mar 01 2026, 19:25

Share to

Share to

Copy link

Key Takeaways

An analysis of the Bitcoin-to-Gold price ratio suggests Bitcoin is significantly undervalued and poised for a potential rally, according to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow. This view is based on a Z-score metric that has historically preceded major price increases for the digital asset, presenting a contrarian outlook to more bearish market forecasts.

A key metric, the Bitcoin-to-Gold Z-score, stands at -1.24, indicating that Bitcoin is trading significantly below its historical average relative to gold.
Historical data shows that when the Z-score previously fell below -2, it was followed by triple-digit percentage gains for Bitcoin, including a 150% rally after November 2022 and a 300% surge after March 2020.
This bullish analysis is a contrarian view, as other market analysts predict a potential drop to $50,000 for Bitcoin due to investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

BTC-to-Gold Z-Score Hits -1.24, Signaling Undervaluation

Bitcoin is undervalued by 24% to 66% compared to gold and the global money supply, according to an analysis by Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3. The argument hinges on the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which currently sits at -1.24. This statistical measure indicates how far the current ratio has deviated from its historical average. A negative score suggests undervaluation, and Mow notes that gold appears "overextended" after its futures closed at $5,247.90 on Friday.

Past Dips Below -2 Z-Score Preceded Triple-Digit Gains

Mow's analysis highlights that previous moments when the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score dropped below the -2 threshold have preceded significant price rallies. For instance, after the metric fell below -3 during the collapse of FTX in November 2022, Bitcoin's price increased by over 150% in the following year. A similar pattern occurred during the market crash of March 2020, when the Z-score fell below -2. From a low of approximately $3,717, Bitcoin's price surged by more than 300% over the next 12 months, eventually leading to its late 2021 all-time high near $69,000.

Bullish Call Defies Broader $50,000 Price Forecasts

Mow's bullish outlook serves as a counterpoint to more cautious sentiment prevailing in the market. Several other analysts forecast more downside for Bitcoin, citing geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty as primary drivers for a potential price drop toward the $50,000 level. This bearish perspective follows recent volatility where Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,000 before staging a partial recovery to its current price of approximately $66,400.