Bernstein initiated coverage on Bullish, projecting it will become the second-largest institutional crypto exchange after Coinbase, setting a $60 price target.

Executive Summary

Bernstein analysts initiated coverage on Bullish, projecting it to become the second-largest institutional crypto exchange after Coinbase. The firm set an initial price target of $60, representing a 15% upside.

The Event in Detail

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, initiated coverage on Bullish, a crypto firm backed by Peter Thiel, with a "market-perform" rating and a $60 price target. This target represents a 14.6% upside from the previous closing price of $52.35. The firm cited Bullish's experienced management team and strong position in running an institutional exchange business as key factors in their analysis. Bernstein anticipates Bullish will secure approximately 8% of U.S. institutional spot volumes by the end of 2027, with its global share remaining around 7%.

Market Implications

Bernstein forecasts significant growth in the institutional crypto market, projecting the revenue pool will more than triple from $5 billion in 2024 to $18 billion by 2030. The U.S. is expected to become a key hub, increasing its share of global institutional activity from 7% to approximately 20%. Derivatives and stablecoins are expected to be primary drivers of this expansion. Crypto derivatives revenue is projected to grow from $3 billion to $13 billion by 2030, while stablecoins are forecast to scale from $240 billion to $4 trillion by 2035.

Expert Commentary

"We expect a successful U.S. business debut to be the north star for BLSH to create shareholder value," Bernstein analysts concluded.

Bernstein also suggests that Bullish's ownership of Coindesk could facilitate a future launch into the retail exchange market. However, they cautioned that investors will need to see early evidence of execution in the U.S. before fully embracing the growth narrative.

Broader Context

Coinbase's U.S. market share has declined from 55% in March 2024 to 41% by early September, according to data from Kaiko cited by CryptoSlate. During the same period, Bullish's market share increased from 17% to 33%, highlighting its growing influence in the institutional crypto space. This shift indicates a trend towards institutional trading, where Bullish has strategically focused its services by offering advanced trading tools and deep liquidity.