Edgen Crypto·Dec 02 2025, 19:33
[1] Gold and tech could win in 2026, Goldman survey finds - Axios (https://www.axios.com/2025/12/01/gold-tech-st ...)[2] Standard Chartered raises China 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% - Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/st ...)[3] Fidelity fund manager offers 2026 tech stocks forecast - TheStreet (https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fidelity- ...)
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Dec 02 2025, 19:30
Bitcoin Volatility Premium Over VIX Widens, Signaling Pair Trade Opportunities Amid Market Rout
## The Event in Detail The spread between the **Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV)** and the **CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)**, which measures the S&P 500's expected volatility, has widened to a notable degree. This divergence follows a sharp downturn in the digital asset market, where **Bitcoin (BTC)** prices fell from a weekend high of approximately $91,000 to below $85,000. The broader **CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index** declined by nearly 6% in 24 hours. Volmageddon's BVIV, which tracks 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin, surged to over 55% during Asian trading hours before settling around 53%. The sell-off triggered over $637 million in liquidations across the crypto market, with more than $430 million originating from altcoins. Tokens such as **Zcash (ZEC)**, **Ethena (ENA)**, and **Celestia (TIA)** experienced significant losses of 20%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. ## Market Implications The widening volatility premium has opened the door for sophisticated pair trading strategies. This involves traders taking opposing positions in the two indices to capitalize on their relative movements. For example, a trader might short BVIV futures while going long on VIX futures, betting that the spread will narrow. Such strategies require significant capital and continuous monitoring, making them more suitable for institutional investors and hedge funds. The market rout has also heavily impacted crypto-related equities. Shares of **Coinbase (COIN)** and **Robinhood (HOOD)** fell more than 6%, while **Strategy (MSTR)**, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, saw its stock plunge by 11%. This reflects growing investor anxiety and a broader risk-off sentiment. ## Expert Commentary Analysts at **Deutsche Bank** attribute the crypto sell-off to a combination of institutional selling, profit-taking by long-term holders, and a more hawkish outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The uncertainty is compounded by stalled crypto regulation in the United States. In contrast, investment bank **Benchmark** reiterated a "buy" rating for **Strategy (MSTR)**, rejecting what it calls a "doom narrative." Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that Bitcoin's price would need to fall below $12,700—a decline of approximately 86% from current levels—before the company would be unable to service its convertible debt obligations. This commentary came even as **Strategy CEO Phong Le** acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin if the company's market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings falls significantly. ## Broader Context The recent market volatility is not occurring in a vacuum. Hawkish remarks from **Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda**, hinting at a potential interest rate hike, have put pressure on global risk assets. A stronger yen could force hedge funds to unwind the "yen carry trade"—a strategy of borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This macro headwind is contributing to a flight to safety, evidenced by a $3.6 billion outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold have seen futures rise nearly 7%. The current conditions are testing Bitcoin's integration into diversified investment portfolios, raising questions about whether this is a short-term correction or a more sustained market adjustment.
Dec 02 2025, 19:27
American Bitcoin (ABTC) Stock Plummets Over 40% Despite Broader Crypto Rally
## Executive Summary Shares of **American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC)**, a cryptocurrency mining company with ties to Eric and Donald Trump Jr., experienced a significant sell-off on Tuesday, with the stock price falling by as much as 51%. The dramatic drop occurred paradoxically as the price of **Bitcoin (BTC)** was rallying, suggesting that the negative sentiment was specific to the company rather than the broader cryptocurrency market. This event underscores the high volatility and company-specific risks inherent in the publicly traded crypto-mining sector, even as the underlying digital assets show strength. ## The Event in Detail On Tuesday morning, shares of **ABTC** collapsed, falling 42% as of 12 p.m. EST after an initial plunge of over 51% in the hour after the market opened. This severe downturn contrasts sharply with the performance of **Bitcoin**, which rallied to over $92,000 on the same day. **American Bitcoin Corp.**, which lists Eric Trump as a co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer, debuted on the Nasdaq in September following a merger. Despite a brief surge post-launch, the stock has since declined by approximately 78% from its September high. According to its third-quarter earnings report, the company holds over 3,000 bitcoin, acquired through mining and strategic purchases, and reported revenues of $64.2 million with a net income of $3.5 million for the quarter. Notably, SEC filings indicate that nearly all major shareholders are restricted from selling their shares until 2026, which suggests the selling pressure may not be originating from its principal investors. ## Market Implications The divergence between **ABTC's** stock performance and **Bitcoin's** price rally indicates that investors are scrutinizing company-specific fundamentals and associated risks rather than simply trading the stock as a proxy for **Bitcoin**. The event had a ripple effect, with shares of mining peer **Hut 8 (HUT)** also declining by 12%. This occurred a day after a broader market downturn saw other crypto-related stocks, including **Coinbase (COIN)**, **Robinhood (HOOD)**, and **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**, fall amid general risk-averse sentiment driven by uncertainty over potential interest rate policies. ## Broader Context The cryptocurrency market has been marked by significant volatility. After reaching a record high of nearly $126,000 in October, **Bitcoin's** price has fallen more than 30%, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Higher yields on traditional assets like bonds can reduce the appeal of riskier investments such as cryptocurrencies and related equities. The sharp decline of **ABTC** serves as a case study in how political associations and individual company performance can lead to outcomes that are decoupled from the general trajectory of the digital asset market, presenting unique risks for investors in this sector.
Dec 02 2025, 19:23
Unlimit Launches Stable.com Amidst Growing Competition in Stablecoin Infrastructure
## Executive Summary Unlimit's launch of Stable.com introduces a new non-custodial platform for stablecoin swaps and global off-ramps, intensifying competition in the digital asset payment sector. The move positions the company in a rapidly evolving market where regulated banks and established fintech firms are also deploying significant resources to build the infrastructure for stablecoin-based finance, signaling a broader convergence of blockchain technology and traditional banking. ## The Event in Detail **Unlimit** has debuted **Stable.com**, a platform designed to simplify stablecoin-to-fiat conversions and swaps between different stablecoins. The service operates on a non-custodial basis, which means it does not take possession of users' funds during transactions. This model is a key differentiator, appealing to users who prioritize security and direct control over their digital assets. The platform's stated goal is to provide seamless global off-ramps, enabling users to convert their stablecoin holdings into traditional currency more efficiently. ## Market Implications The introduction of **Stable.com** comes as the stablecoin market, with reported annual transaction volumes exceeding $20 trillion, sees a surge in infrastructure development from both crypto-native companies and traditional financial players. **Cross River**, a regulated U.S. bank, recently launched a **USDC** payments platform that integrates directly with its core banking system. Cross River's offering, which supports both the **Ethereum** and **Solana** blockchains, is aimed at enterprise use cases like merchant payouts and treasury management, unifying fiat and stablecoin flows within a single, compliant system. Unlimit's non-custodial approach presents a clear alternative to such bank-integrated models. While banks offer regulatory certainty and unified treasury management, non-custodial platforms appeal to a segment of the market that is wary of institutional control and counterparty risk. ## Expert Commentary The strategic decisions surrounding stablecoin infrastructure are becoming critical for all financial participants. According to Mark Nichols, a Principal at **EY**, both banks and corporations must formulate clear strategies to avoid being left behind. > "The banking community and the corporate community both need to have really clear, coherent stablecoin strategies... The battle here for me is who's going to own that wallet, but also who's going to own that infrastructure layer." Experts note a divergence in strategy. Large money-center banks are treating stablecoins as an additional payment rail to boost internal efficiencies, whereas smaller institutions are more focused on simply enabling clients to send and receive funds via these new channels. For corporations, the strategic question is whether to build proprietary digital wallets to own the customer relationship or to rely on banks as their financial hub. ## Broader Context The development of stablecoin platforms is a core component of a wider payment modernization trend. As financial services become increasingly digitized, the underlying infrastructure, or "rails," that moves money is becoming commoditized. The strategic focus is shifting from controlling the rails to owning the user-facing application—the digital wallet. As one expert noted, owning the wallet means owning the customer relationship, which is considered the ultimate strategic prize. > "Once you own that wallet, you own that relationship. That's a strategic win." This competition is unfolding amid an evolving regulatory landscape. The passage of legislative frameworks, such as the recently enacted "Genius Act," is setting new standards for stablecoin issuance and reserves. Such regulations are forcing market participants to adapt their business models, particularly those that relied on generating yield from stablecoin reserves. The launch of platforms like **Stable.com** underscores the industry-wide push to build compliant, user-friendly bridges between the traditional and digital economies.