Key Takeaways:
XRP's $1 support level faces its most severe test since the token's 2020 SEC lawsuit as escalating US-Iran military conflict and weakening ETF demand drive a risk-off exodus from crypto markets.
XRP fell to $1.02 before recovering to $1.09 as the US launched a second day of strikes against Iran, triggering a broad risk-asset selloff across digital assets.
"Geopolitical shocks of this magnitude force a repricing of risk across every asset class, and crypto is no exception," Nina Volkov, macro analyst at Edgen, said. "ETF demand was already showing signs of cracking before the strikes — this accelerates the flight to safety."
The US military struck Iranian coastal facilities in Bandar Abbas and Chabahar on Wednesday, a day after targeting more than 80 military sites, according to US Central Command. President Donald Trump declared the June ceasefire "over" earlier Wednesday. XRP trading volume surged past $4.2 billion in the 24 hours to 14:00 UTC, CoinGecko data shows, as sellers tested the $1.02 level repeatedly through the Asian session.
The $1.00 mark represents XRP's last major support before a potential slide toward $0.85, a level not seen since November 2024. A break below would erase roughly $4.5 billion in market value from the token's current $62 billion capitalization.
Spot XRP exchange-traded products saw net outflows of $87 million over the past two trading sessions, according to CoinShares data, reversing three weeks of consecutive inflows. The outflows coincide with a broader pullback from digital asset funds, which recorded $415 million in total outflows for the week ending July 8. The Grayscale XRP Trust traded at a discount of 2.3% to net asset value as of Wednesday's close, signaling waning institutional appetite.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish posture adds another layer of pressure. Fed funds futures now price in a 68% probability of no rate cut before November, up from 42% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. Higher-for-longer rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like XRP and have historically correlated with drawdowns in altcoin markets. Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $64,800 over the same period, dragging the broader crypto market down 4.1% in total capitalization to $2.3 trillion, CoinGecko data shows.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
