Bitcoin holds near $65,300 as $465 million in ETF outflows test support

Bitcoin traded at $65,300 as of 03:00 UTC on Monday, up 1.3 percent over the past 24 hours, holding within a tight $63,700-to-$65,500 range after investment funds shed $465 million over two sessions last week.

"Current bitcoin prices are low but fair given the macro uncertainties pervading markets," Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said.

The outflows on July 23 and July 24 reversed a five-day inflow run that had brought more than $600 million into US spot bitcoin ETFs, according to fund data. The streak had marked the strongest institutional buying since mid-July. Broader US liquidity expanded to $5.92 trillion during the same period, suggesting the outflows reflected a leverage flush rather than a shift in conviction among long-term holders.

The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting now stands as the week's defining event. Markets price a 38 percent probability of a rate hike, up from 13 percent a week earlier, according to CME data. A hawkish tone could pressure Bitcoin toward the $64,200 support level, while a dovish outcome may open a path to $68,000.

ETF Flows and Liquidity Paint a Mixed Picture

The five-day inflow run that ended July 22 had lifted market confidence after eight consecutive weeks of outflows through late June. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led the buying, with cumulative inflows exceeding $600 million. The reversal on July 23 saw roughly $225 million exit in a single session, with IBIT redemptions driving most of the outflow.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, raised $263 million by selling common stock during the prior week, easing concerns about potential Bitcoin sell pressure tied to its $1.76 billion annual dividend obligation. The company's cash reserves now stand at $3.22 billion, according to its latest filing.

Bitcoin's 30-day options delta skew on Deribit stood at 13 percent on Monday, meaning puts traded at a premium relative to calls. Under neutral conditions, the indicator ranges from negative 6 percent to positive 6 percent. While improved from the prior week's 19 percent reading, the skew shows whales and market makers remain reluctant to hold downside price exposure.

Bitcoin's market capitalization stood near $1.3 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume of $16.07 billion, according to CoinGecko. The $64,200 level serves as near-term support, while resistance builds between $66,000 and $68,000.

Bitcoin's resilience after the ETF outflow snap and rising Treasury yields — the five-year yield hit 4.33 percent on Monday — strengthens the case for continued decoupling from traditional markets. A rally toward $70,000 could be triggered by weak corporate earnings in the AI sector, though the Fed's rate decision remains the nearer-term trigger.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.