Bitcoin holds $63,000 as US-Iran ceasefire extension reports diverge

Bitcoin traded between $63,000 and $63,700 on Monday as conflicting reports on a US-Iran ceasefire extension kept traders on edge.

Bitcoin held near $63,490 on Monday, up 0.9 percent, as reports of a US-Iran ceasefire extension offset Iran's dismissal of any binding 60-day deadline. The token swung between $63,000 and $63,700 through the Asian session, erasing earlier gains after Tehran's denial.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said at an Aug. 17 briefing that no 60-day deadline exists in the memorandum of understanding with the US, adding that Tehran never formulates policy under ultimatums or time constraints. The MoU anticipated a 60-day window for talks on sanctions relief and the nuclear issue, extendable by mutual consent, but Baqaei said the period is now irrelevant because of what Iran called "blatant and widespread violation" of the ceasefire.

Trading volume jumped 56 percent on the day, while Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in August fell to 25 percent. Crude oil climbed above $83 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic ran at zero over the weekend with negotiations stalled.

The next test is whether the truce holds. Al Arabiya reported the US and Iran agreed to extend the ceasefire that was set to expire Monday, though no independent confirmation has emerged. A de-escalation would be risk-on for crypto, while renewed strikes could push Bitcoin toward the $62,300 support.

Iran dismisses 60-day deadline as Hormuz traffic stalls

Talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are delayed because of complexity and the involvement of multiple countries, Baqaei said, as the two sides work on a mechanism to guarantee sovereignty and safe passage. Two Iranian-made Hadid-110 drones targeted the office of Kurdistan Region of Iraq Prime Minister Masrour Barzani early Monday, a strike Barzani called a "dangerous escalation" and a direct threat to regional security. The Wall Street Journal reported Iranian leaders have no intention of winding down the war, viewing the MoU as a US and Israeli attempt to ease pressure on the global economy while preparing larger attacks.

ETF flows cool as Fed rate-hike odds slip

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $865.3 million between Aug. 3 and Aug. 7, then recorded about $385.2 million in net outflows over the following five sessions, including $131.1 million on Aug. 13. August flows remain positive by roughly $480 million, showing institutional demand has weakened rather than disappeared. Fed futures imply a 66.9 percent probability of no rate change in September after softer employment, inflation and retail-sales data, with July retail sales down 0.6 percent. Ethereum gained about 0.7 percent to $1,903, while XRP slipped to near $1.00 and Solana eased to $76.

Bitcoin's median realized price sits near $63,000, with the short-term holder cost basis at about $68,700, a level a sustained reclaim would need to return recent buyers to profit. Spot trading volume measured in Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest since 2019, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp move once the current range breaks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.